Life in Yugoslavia An eyewitness account of the life and times in Sarajevo, Kosovo and what was once Yugoslavia US and IMET Plans by US government to include Indian trainees at its IMET military school

by Asima Basu - Belgrade

With industrial production dropping by 2,5(two point five) percent monthly or 25 (twenty five) percent annually, the Yugoslav economy is heading for recession, Dr.Tomislav Popovic, Director of the Belgrade Economic Institute warned.

Dr Popovic told jourtnalists that if the current trend continued , value of social product this year would fall to US Dollars 8 billion from its current value of 11 billion US Dollars.

According to the Economic Institute's latest analysis and forecats inflation in 1998 will touch 50(fifty) percent although the Government, controlling prices of large number of products, planned zero percent inflation in the current year.

Nor would be the Government's target of increase in exports by 30 percent this year would be reached in view of the stagnation of exports for months, the Institute concluded adding that at the most exports in 1998 could go up by 2 (two) to 5(five) percent. Total exports in the first nine months of the year valued 2(two) billion US Dollars while total imports in the same period valued 3,5(three point five )billion US Dollars so that by the end of the year trade deficit is expected to be about 2(two )billion US dollars, according to Belgrade Institute for Foreign trade.

In the past six months losses incurred by the Yugoslav economy amounted to 28(twenty eight) billion dinars (one US dollar equiv to 10 dinars), twice as much as in the entire 1997,said Dr.Jovan Rankovic and predicted that by the end of 1998 losses in the economy would be as high as 40 billion dinars.

The Government does not have the money to pump into the economy .The latest ban by the Western countries on investment and freezing of Yugoslav and Serbian Governments' assets abroad to punish Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic for violence in the Serbian Province Kosovo have shattered all hopes of inflow of foreign capital which is badly needed to heal the economy wrecked by wars and three and half years of UN sanctions which were imposed in 1992 to punish Yugoslavia for fueling the war in Bosnia.

The initial reaction of the economists to the latest Western sanctions was "The country will not be ruined, government will not fall on the contrary it may gain but the common men will be hit hard and finally the bill will be paid by them(common men)". Yes, they are. The common men are already paying the price. Some 800000(eight hundred thousand) people are out of job. With closing down of three thousand enterprised from the end of 1997 till middle of 1998 emplyment was cut by fifty thousand so that total employment was less than it was six-seven years back, claimed Dr. Jovan Rankovic.

Of 10,3 million total population in the country 95 percent belong to the category of poor which includes doctors, scientists, engineers, professors, says Dr(Mrs) Aleksandra Posarac of the Belgrade Economic Institute. According to her the poorest of the poor are the workers in the industries(the so-called blue collars) and then come the pensioners.

"It is a sad fact that more and more pensioners are begging on the streets or searching for food in the dustbins", Belgrade daily "Bliz" quoted Mr. Milan Djuric, President of the independent Association of pensioners of Serbia, as saying. Acoording to Mr. Djuric it is humiliating that five hundred thousand pensioners cannot meet their basic needs with the pension they receive, that also with three months delay.

Pensions are paid in two instalments. First instalment for August '98 pension was paid after November 20 so that the pensioners will not receive this year's three and half months pensions by the end of this year.

Average wage in September this year was 1138 dinars (US Dollars 113) and marked 4,5 percent rise compared to the previous month but costs of living in the same month rose by 4,9 percent, said Dr. Milena Jovicic ,Professor of Belgrade Economics Faculty and Associate of the Economic Institute.

Of all the other Yugoslav Republics average wage is the lowest in Yugoslavia (Serbia and Montenegro) with Yugoslavia having the most unfavourable relation between salary and cost of food, showed a survey by the Belgrade independent daily "Bliz" For a four member family in Yugoslavia 2,5(two and half) average salaries were necessary in June to buy the basic consumer's basket while in Slovenia and Croatia one salary was enough for one and half consumer's basket .In Macedonia the cost of the basket was same as the average salary while in the war devastated Bosnia the two average salariess were needed for the consumer's basket. The Belgrade daily "Bliz" conducted a survey on "how the Yugoslavs live"." Lately I live like a dog. In fact I don't live but just survive", said 29 years old Vladan,seller of small items on the walking street of Belgrade. Ice cream seller Mrs. Zivodarka Djokic said " when Ii die my family will not have the money for my funeral as my husband is a pensioner. It will be worse and worse for us". "Yesterday I saw a young handsome boy to pick up a piece of bread from the dustbin and eat it. I feel like crying while I am telling you this", said Zivodarka. "How do I Live? Sufferings and poverty brother. Even if the situation in the country improves it will be all the same for me. I am now 25 and my youth is ruined" said angry Branka Antic who was selling flowers, while Branko, seller of capsicum angrily replied " what survey man, don't you see that I am nacked and bare footed?".

The replies of the intellectuals were equally disheartening. "I have two faculty (graduation) degrees, speak two foreign languages and this morning bought just three capsicums and 100 grams of rice. I get 800 dinars as pension and after payment for water. heating etc I am left with only 90 dinars. I am a heart patient. To buy medicines some times I have to leave out electricity bill. We did not live so bad even during the UN sanctions", complained retired teacher of nuclear physics and mathematics.

Yugoslavs who were known as great meat eaters are now forced to eat more vegetables than meat. Of the Belgraders covered by "Bliz"'s poll 27 percent rarely eat meat,53 percent only periodically consume meat while only 20 percent Belgraders have meat regularly on the menu. But one thing the Yugoslavs cannot sacrifice even at the hard times is their image as "elegantly dressed" Well dressed Belgraders, particularly women, stand in long queues in front of imported second hand dresses shpos which have mushroomed in Belgrade. According to "Bliz";s survey 26 percent of the polled in Serbia buy the second hand dresses as they cannot afford to buy expensive new dresses. But they still look elegant.