
ISHITA MUKHOPADHYAY B JP government is merrily celebrating its uncertain one year in office. With unstable dilly dallying allies, and still more uncertain economic policies BJP had shown a fit in tight rope walking throughout the year. The performance of the economy has been disastrous, with economists and policy designers all giving alarming signals, but only to leave the government unperturbed. Finance Minister Yashobant Sinha presented two budgets during the one year. The regime rather started with one budget and completed one year with the current one. There is complete uncertainy with the further maintainace of the regime. Had it been only a fact of unholy political alliances, the economy would have been saved. However the present regime has sinister motivations which got expressed through dishonest economic policies right from the first day of the regime. The elements of dishonesty can be pointed very sharply.The economy was already in a bad shape due to the liberalisation, globalisation and privatisation package initiated by Congress(I) in 1991. But the present government took initiative in worsening the downward trends and magnifying the yawning gaps of deficits. Over and above an inflationary trend already in the economy, inflation reached a record two digit. Prices of essential items spiralled up. Over 43% of the inflationary trends was due to rise in foodgrain prices.This was not only due to a decelerating food output, but also due to unholy trader-merchant nexus of the government. The party at the driving force of the government is mainly having alliance with the traders of the country and aided them to protect their interests to broaden, strenghthen and consolidate political supportin the country. The result has been a shooting up of prices of essentials. Industrial production dipped down to miserable figures. Although they allured foreign investment, figures show that investment actually dropped down.Domestic as well as foreign investment have taken the shape of speculative ones. Both the budgets have shown an increase in the share of fiscal deficit to GDP. The present one showed that the percentage actually shot up to more than 6%, which is relatively high for the developing economies. However, immediately before the bidget presentation, Central Statistical Organisation revised the GDP estaimates, by changing the base as well as the inputs, and this exercise helped to blow up the figure for GDP substantially, so that the deficit as a percentage came down to nearly 4%. This statistical jugglery may have helped the government to survive for the moment from both external as well as internal pressures, but has revealed our bankruptcy even more. The pattern of deficit management has also raised eyebrows. The last as well as the former budget was full of pro-people promises but without fiscal provisions for the same. Finance Minister himself was not making proper statements regarding the budgetory provisions. The budget speech and the expenditure budget were not consistent. Although the minister boasted of greater emphasis on education, health and shelter of the people of the country, the revised estimates of the current year's budget showed a slashdown in figures from the last years projected figures. This clearly implies a fall in emphasis. Promises without provisions mean blatant lies in the true sense. As budgetory support the country went for indebtedness. Internal debt has mounted up and interst payments to both internal as well as external debt continues to occupy the lions shareof the total expenditure. Little is left for productive investment.This has also called upon the intentions of the government to revamp the dwindling economic condition. Without any concern for succesive fall in both agricultural and industrial production and swelling pool of unemployment( of which the government has stopped giving estimates)the government is sailing through, but now everybody asks: how long? The question is beginning to be answered in the polls held so far during the last year. Less the government survives, the better. People of the country are waiting for the change and the change is sure to come. |
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