MANOEUVRES ONCE AGAIN

However, even at this stage the BJP is bent upon exposing its real character by its unprincipled manoeuvres, aimed to retain power by hook or by crook. Not to talk of its claim of providing a stable government under an able prime minister, the BJP's claim of being a party of morality and principles, a party with a difference, had already been exposed long ago. Now it seems they are going to lose whatever is left of their credibility, if at all.

This is obvious from a single cursory glance at the numerical position in the Lok Sabha. True the BJP emerged as the single largest party in the lower house after the 1998 polls, but it was much short of the majority required to form a government. Even the BJP and the allies taken together were not in a position to form a government if the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) had not extended support to them. It is known that the TDP had fought the 1998 elections as a constituent of the United Front, on an anti-Congress, anti-BJP platform, but then it betrayed the United Front and supported the BJP-led coalition, for which it got the post of Lok Sabha speaker for its nominee.

Yet, the coalition had a majority of only seven in the house. Then the Rashtriya Lok Dal of Om Prakash Chautala, with four members in the house, withdrew support from the Vajpayee government and informed the president of its decision. It is thus patently clear that in case the AIADMK led by Ms Jayalalitha, with 18 members, withdraws its support, as per her announced intention; the government will automatically lose its majority and will have some 15 members short of the magic figure. (Two AIADMK members of the government have already tendered their resignations.) This naturally leaves one wondering as to on what basis Vajpayee and his men are claiming that they would prove their majority in the Lok Sabha when the time comes.

There could be only one basis of their optimism -- horse trading, for which they have got enough money. After all, in the last one-year they have succeeded in rallying a large number of moneybags -- traders, hoarders and industrial houses -- behind them.

This is not something new either. In Uttar Pradesh they have already demonstrated to what extent they could go to retain power. There they performed the feat, albeit an immoral and impermissible feat, of engineering splits in the legislature parties of the Congress, BSP and Janata Dal, and gave all the 70 defectors ministerships, thereby imposing a very heavy burden on the already emptying state exchequer. It appears they are thinking in terms of repeating the same feat at the national level. It was earlier tried in 1996 also, though unsuccessfully.

At the same time, the BJP is trying to blackmail the smaller regional groupings into continuing their support. As we know, these groupings had extended support to the BJP-led coalition in the hope that the centre would extend to their states financial and other assistance. Their compulsions could well be understood. But now the BJP is using their compulsions for an immoral aim, to desist them from withdrawing their support. The question is if the BJP succeeds in its game, what would remain of democracy?

In case the BJP leaders fail in this horse trading game, they have threatened that fresh polls would be inevitable. This is aimed to scare the masses who do not want another poll in so short a time. But it is patently clear this is but a hoax

as fresh polls would become inevitable only after the president of India explores all the alternatives and finds that no party or combination is in a position to form a government in place of the outgoing one.

REAL INTENTION

The fact is that the BJP is trying to somehow save its government with its specific Hindutva agenda in mind. In place of their earlier naked Hindutva drive, the party has learnt very well that in the situation of a coalition government, it cannot pursue its agenda directly, no matter how weak or pliant its coalition partners are. The latter have their own compulsions and cannot be pliant to the limit of losing their mass base. They have already forced the BJP once to demarcate from the slogans raised by the VHP, Bajrang Dal and other outfits controlled and guided by the RSS.

That is the reason the RSS has decided to pack governmental positions like governorships as well as educational and research institutions, both print and electronic mass media, etc, with as many of its people as possible. No doubt they have got a large measure of success in this drive but, apparently, the process has not reached to the extent that they may feel assured about their domination in bureaucracy and other fields in case their government goes. Hence they feel the need to set many more of their people in leading positions. That is why the BJP is not willing to go by democratic norms even though it has apparently lost its majority, and is trying to somehow cling to power to pursue its game.

It was therefore not accidental that even after the co-ordination committee of the BJP-led coalition and later the prime minister too had rejected Ms Jayalalitha Jayaraman's demands, the final resolution of the national executive meeting of the BJP, held recently at Goa's capital Panaji, did not have the courage to take a clear position on these demands. Rather the party tried its best to woo Ms Jayalalitha and have the doors open for a compromise. As we know, Jayalalitha had demanded that the defence minister George Fernandes be transferred to another, "less sensitive ministry," that the dismissed navy chief Vishnu Bhagwat be reinstated, and that a JPC be constituted to probe Bhagwat's charges against the minister.

NO PLACE FOR VACILLATION

Now one thing is very clear: it was the vacillation on part of other parties, particularly of the Congress (I), the second major party in Lok Sabha, that was to a significant extent responsible for the BJP-led coalition's continuation in office. From the very beginning the Left has been warning in quite unambiguous terms that continuation of the BJP in power would pose a very real and serious threat to national unity and to the secular federal edifice of the country. But this warning was not taken with the seriousness it deserved.

True the Congress (I)'s vacillation was quite understandable in the beginning. Its thinking was that if it takes steps to dislodge the BJP from office, the latter would pose before the public as a victim of conspiracy and try to generate a sympathy wave in its favour. It could then even sway certain sections of the people in its favour.

But such vacillation would not be correct, at least today. For the fact is that, in the last 12 months, the BJP has exposed itself beyond repair. So much so that even its allies are not sure whether their alliance with the BJP would prove beneficial for them. In fact no ruling party had ever lost its credibility so much in so short a time. The prices of essentials had never risen so high, industrial sickness had never been so grave, unemployment has always been on an increase but had never reached such a high level, overall the economy had never been in such a mess as it is today. The BJP is today certainly not in a position to sway the masses in a sympathy wave. Otherwise it would not have lost in assembly elections in Delhi, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh, held in November 1998, so badly. Evidently, the time to act is now.

However, there are still certain Congress leaders who think in terms of wait and watch, hoping that they would be able to get a majority in the next elections. They forget that merely winning the people's confidence is not the whole thing. Today what is required is that whosoever cherishes national unity comes into action to defend it. Already, the Congress party has had a record of compromising on the issue of defending secularism and had alienated several sections on this score; at least now it has to shed its inhibition in regard to defence of secularism. It has also to move to retrieve the economy from the critical situation into which the BJP government has landed it; it has to effect radical land reforms in the country which it has promised, and take several other measures to rush relief to the toiling people. Only then will it be able to win the people's confidence.

Of course, it first requires that the BJP government fall under the weight of its own contradictions, of its own sins. No opposition party can afford to use unscrupulous methods for the purpose, as the BJP is trying to use and has used in the past. But, all in all, the BJP has created such a situation that it is going to lose power soon, probably in the coming session of parliament itself. The numerical position in Lok Sabha is patently against the coalition's continuation any more. And the situation has come to such a pass that whosoever falls into their trap will have to pay a very heavy price for it. Now the Congress too, after some vacillation, has made it very clear that it will not hesitate about forming an alternative government in case the BJP-led government falls under its own weight.

POSITION OF THE LEFT

As far as the Left is concerned, it has made its position abundantly clear. To it, the first and foremost thing in the given situation today is to ward off the threats to national unity that has come about since the BJP came to power a year ago. On the other hand, the country has witnessed two elections in three years and the people are wary of yet another election in so short a time. That is why the Left has decided to extend issue-based support to the Congress in case it comes forward to form an alternative government.

However, the numerical strength of the Left is such that if it joins the government formed by the Congress, it will only compromise its position and will not simply be able to fulfil the people's aspirations. Nor can the Left afford to give up its struggle to forge a third alternative that it sees as an imperative in the interest of the country's very future. Evidently the situation that will emerge after the BJP's ignominious exit from government, will be but a temporary one that cannot pre-empt the need of a third alternative.