POLITICAL COMMENT The Ringside View

Economist Column Globalisation & the crisis of developement Ringside View Unlucky Thirteen Loud Thinking Fernandes: to the wall

The unlucky thirteen haunts the BJP.

Last time its single party government lasted for thriteen days, this time its 18-party alliance government may not last beyond thirteen months, as its ally, second in numerical strength, ADMK has withdrawn its MInisters and dissociated from the governmental co-ordination committee.  True, last straw is yet to be heaped.  ADMK support to the government has not yet been withdrawn.  But ADMK supremo Ms Jayalalitha having arrived in Delhi on monday evening declared that withdrawal of her party's support was her express purpose for her visit to Delhi.

So, now the focus has shifted to Rashtrapati Bhavan with the mercury of political landscape shooting up every hour.  Again, President K.R. Narayanan has been the cynosure of all eyes.  The Prime Minister A.B. Vajpayee with his Home Minister L.K. Advani had already called on the President.  The maverick politicaian Mr. Subramaniam Swamy, whose tea-party had brought Jaya-Sonia closer and engendered the political earthquake, also met the President with all his brief against allowing Vajpayee government to continue after Jayalalitha withdraws her party's support to it.  Ms Jayalalitha also has sought for appointment with the President.

Now ball is in the court of President.  Will he or won't he ask Mr. Vajpayee to prove his government's majority on the floor of Parliament if Jayalalitha formally withdraws support?  Or, Vajpayee will be allowed to continue with a minority government till an opposition moved no confidence motion is brought and passed?  The Constitutional experts are divided over the issue.

But most important is which way Ms Sonia Gandhi, the President of the largest opposition party in Parliament will move in the days to come.  Mystery still shrouds over her movements.  Nobody except herself knows her mind.  Will she form an alliance with her party's old tested friends and take upon herself the responsibility to lead a Congress gvoernment or allow other parties to form an alliance to run a government with Congress support?

A clear picture will emerge only after resumption of the Parliament's budget session on and from 15th of April. Meanwhile, as BJP is trying to enlist support from some other smaller parties and from a new alliance, the Congress and other major players in the arena are also setting their agenda.  The unfolding days will prove which side will win.

But with the prevailing uncertainty casualty is the governance.