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critic.gif (527 bytes)Economist’s Column
DEATHTOLL IN ECONOMY UNDER BJP REGIME

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usm-red.gif (844 bytes)Economist Column
D
eathtoll in economy under BJP rule
usm-red.gif (836 bytes)Loud Thinking
Y
et again Uttar Pradesh
usm-red.gif (844 bytes)Ringside View
C
ome September, the people will choose which party or alliance would run the government.

 

SUDIPTA BHATTACHARYA,VIDYASAGAR UNIVERSITY

Swadeshi mask of the thirteen-month-old BJP regime had fallen apart. The intentions of the government in terms of submission to the foreign capital have been exposed. It has become gradually clear that the government had converted the country once again into a colony of plunder. The recent amendment of the Patents Bill is a glaring example of the intentions of the government. Each sector of the economy is showing signs of degradation. We cite some examples to show the impact of the regime in our country.

The Economic Survey of the current year, which is a source of standard official statistics, had claimed the rate of increase of GDP to be 5.8%. During 1997-98 this was 5%. However the claim is a blatant lie as already stated by many economists within the country. Even a footnote in the same Economic Survey has confessed the lie in statistics. Till the present survey the base year of measurement of BJP was the year 1980-81. In the figures of 1998-99 the base year has been suddenly changed to 1993-94. This has implied an overestimate of the order of 9% in the new series of GDP estimates than the old series. But the economists even guess an overestimate of a higher order. In 1997-98 the rate of increase in agricultural production was (-) 1.0 %. This year the agricultural production gained slightly, but as the gain has been estimated over the negative rate, which has helped to show an inflammatory rate. Over and above this, the artificial inflammatory rate of the new series has given the impression of a high GDP growth rate. But these attempts have not been able to conceal the downward trend in industry and services. Indian industry has been suffering under recession since 1996. From a growth rate of 12.2% in industry in 1995-96 the rate came down to 6.0% in 1996-97. In 1997-98 this went down to 5.9% and in 1998-99 this further went down to 4.7%. The stagnation in Indian industries thus accelerated during the BJP regime. In services the growth rate came down from 8.2% in 1997-98 to 6.7%. All of us know that administrative and defence expenditure of the present government has been increased massively. So the decrease in growth rate of services clearly indicate that the subsidy advanced to help the poor people of the country has been forgone. The figures indicate that the subsidy for education, health, and other social sectors had declined from 13.3% in 1997-98 to 5.8% in 1998-99. This is also another contribution of the regime.

The government failed bitterly in the policy to contain inflation. When the government assumed power the rate of inflation was 5% which went up to 9% in just six months of their office. Although the rate came down slightly in the next few months which was much campaigned by the ruling party the average figure for the entire year reached 7%. The prices of foodgrains went up to 22% from 2.8% in February 1997. The consumer price index rose to 13% in the entire fiscal year. The pre-budget hike in prices of foodgrains distributed through public distribution systems added to the plight of the common people. The prices of fertilisers, diesel, LPG,wheat, and sugar were increased., which virtually made the ration shops non-viable.

The regime also effected in an increase in an increase of balance of payments deficit from the figure of 680 crores of US $in 1997-98 to 960 crores of US$ in 1998-99. The budget deficit has also increased in the last budget presented by the government. The government has claimed a reduction in the proportion of budget deficit to GDP from 6.5% in 1997-98 to 4% in 1998-99. This is only due to the deliberate overestimate in the GDP as has been stated earlier. If the GDP estimate of the old series were taken up the figure would go up to 4% as has been reported by economists. The deficit management policy of the government also has not been without flaws. The proportion of tax revenue to total revenue came down from 9.1% in 1997-98 to 8.9% in 1998-99.The share of direct taxes came down from 3.3% to 2.8%. The share of indirect taxes went up from 5.8% to 6.1%. The rich have been taxed at the cost of the poor.

This is the essence of "big boss " of capitalism working through a Swadeshi garb. This is how the failure of a regime has been translated by statistical lies into success. This is how the thirteen-month regime has been continuously acting against the democratic principles of the masses.





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