East Timor On the verge of freedom KOREA A unique football fest

IN the beginning of the year, the Indonesian government, much to the surprise of international community and the people of East Timor themselves, announced that the territory could freely decide on its future. East Timor, apart from Western Sahara, is an outpost where the decolonisation process is yet to be completed. It was a Portuguese colony till 1975. (The UN still recognises Portugal as the "administering power.") After a progressive regime briefly took over in Lisbon in 1974, many had expected a peaceful transfer of power to the legitimate representatives of liberation movements in Portuguese colonies like Angola, Mozambique and East Timor. But the MPLA in Angola, the Frelimo in Mozambique and the Fretelin in East Timor were all Left wing guerrilla groups not acceptable to the West. After the Left wing government in Lisbon was overthrown by CIA inspired machinations, the West made an all-out effort to subvert the decolonisation process.

The Suharto regime in Indonesia was a particular favourite of the West. After all Suharto had done the CIA's bid and killed more than a million Indonesians to prevent his country taking to the socialist path of development in 1965. So when Suharto sent his troops to East Timor in 1975, it had the tacit approval of the West. Indonesia formally annexed East Timor in 1976. The Fretelin led by Xanana Gusmao was never comprehensively defeated by the mighty Indonesian army, the third biggest in Asia. Even today, Fretelin guerrillas are fighting in the hills even though their leader, Gusmao, was captured in 1992. It is estimated that a quarter of the Timorese population of 800,000 perished after the Indonesian army launched its invasion. The brutality of the occupation forces only reinvigorated the Timorese determination to be free.

The fall of Suharto in 1998 led to widespread upheaval all over the Indonesian archipelago. Secessionist forces, which were quite dormant, became suddenly activated. Openly secessionist groups in Acch, Ambon and Irian Jaya went on the war path. The economic collapse also trigerred rioting in many towns and cities, with the economically dominant Chinese minority being targetted. Elsewhere, long simmering religious and ethnic differences violently surfaced into the open. The Indonesian army, its elite forces concentrated in East Timor, suddenly found itself overstretched. Holding on to East Timor could have resulted in other islands detaching from Jakarta's hold. When the new president of Indonesia, Jusuf Habibie, a crony of Suharto and dependent on the still powerful military for his political survival, announced his government's change of tack on East Timor, many were skeptical.

Indonesian foreign minister, Ali Alatas, said in late January that if the East Timorese "want to have their freedom, they are welcome." The pro-independence leader Gusmao was released from a high security prison and confined to "house arrest." Habibie promised more autonomy to East Timor. If the offer was rejected, East Timor could become independent, he said.

The troop concentration in East Timor was considerably reduced but at the same time the Indonesian army, perhaps with the approval of the civilian government, was arming paramilitary and vigilante groups opposed to independence. Since the downfall of Suharto, violence has been steadily escalating. Jakarta has always been predicting that there will be chaos if it abandoned East Timor. In the last few months the pro-Jakarta militias, backed by the military, have been on the rampage, lynching pro-independence activists in the capital city Dili and in the countryside. Hundreds of civilians have been forced to flee to the mountains. Since 1975, more than 200,000 civilians have been killed. A peace agreement was signed by Gusmao and anti-independence leaders in Jakarta in late April but the rampage of the pro-Jakarta militias shows no sign of abating. Gusmao had earlier called for a popular upsurge against the militias.

A vote on the government's autonomy proposals for East Timor is scheduled to be held on August 8, under UN supervision. General Wiranto, powerful Indonesian army chief, has resolutely opposed calls for an international peace-keeping force in East Timor to supervise the vote. Most East Timorese think the Indonesian army is against the concept of granting independence for East Timor. UN officials say disarming the militias is imperative for holding a fair and free vote, and are threatening to call off the vote if the Indonesian authorities do not cooperate in the maintenance of law and order during the run-off to the polls. The autonomy or independence vote is to be supervised by 600 UN monitors and police advisors.

The 200,000 settlers who came to East Timor after 1975 will not be allowed to vote. The agreement on security signed by Indonesia, Portugal and the UN for the East Timor vote said that an "environment devoid of violence and other forms of intimidation" was a pre-requisite for holding fair and free elections and that the "absolute neutrality" of the Indonesian army and police was essential. If the accord is strictly implemented, the results are a foregone conclusion. The East Timorese will join the international community as a free people by the end of the year. But the next two months are going to be critical. The Indonesian army and its proxies will try their best to subvert the voting process.