DEVELOPMENTS SINCE POKHRAN

This is particularly important in view of the developments during the last one-year, since and because of Pokhran-II, which led to a sharp deterioration in the Indo-Pak relations. Before the BJP came to power, the United Front government had scored more than a bit of success in building confidence between the two countries, just as it had improved relations with other neighbours like Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Nepal and China. There was some progress in forging the people-to-people contacts as well. But the May 1998 nuclear explosions, followed by L K Advani's threat to Pakistan on the Kashmir issue, undid all that. Though the Indian prime minister boasted that now the nuclear capability of both India and Pakistan would act as a deterrent for each other, the explosions, as we had warned, only increased the tension between the two countries, created the danger of a nuclear arms race in the subcontinent and aggravated the situation to an unprecedented extent.

Subsequently, some efforts were indeed made in improving the relations, as in the form of a bus trip and the Lahore declaration. However, contrary to the illusions the BJP harboured and spread about the said trip and declaration, projecting it as its big achievement in the foreign policy sphere, not much progress could be achieved because of Pakistan's insistence that Kashmir formed the core issue of Indo-Pak relations, and that without solving this issue no progress was possible in the direction of normalising these relations.

It is known that Kashmir has always been a bone of contention between the two countries ever since independence in 1947. Even though the people of Kashmir had opted for accession to India and had fought, with guns in their hands, the raiders sent in by Pakistan, the latter never accepted the reality. In fact, the issue was brought to limelight by the wars in both 1965 and 1971 also.

PAKISTAN'S INTENTIONS

Subsequently, in the form of the Shimla agreement, both the countries agreed that they would try to solve all the pending issues through bilateral talks, without any third party mediation, and also respect the line of control (LoC) and would not disturb it. Z A Bhutto was even willing to accept the LoC as the de facto partition of Kashmir though he was not in a position to implement the idea immediately, because of the feelings then prevailing in his country following the defeat of Pakistan in the 1971 war.

But the assassination of Bhutto and the capture of power by a military clique led by General Zia-ul-Haque changed all that. The Pak ruling clique now began to wage a covert war against India by supporting, training and arming Punjab and Kashmir militants and infiltrating them into India. The situation has worsened particularly since 1990. At the same time the political situation created in Pakistan is such that no party is in a position to settle the Kashmir issue on any reasonable basis.

The latest infiltration of Pak-backed intruders and even of Pakistani regulars into the Kargil sector of Jammu & Kashmir is in fact a continuation of the Pakistani game to somehow keep the Kashmir cauldron boiling. However, the latest development is that even Nawaz Sharief's allies are deserting him; the Awami National Party of Khan Abdul Wali Khan has quit the coalition. Even a former cricket player Imran Khan has mustered courage to say that the hawks in Pakistan are not willing to allow any normalisation of Indo-Pak relations.

SUBCONTINENT NEEDS PEACE

However, as earlier, the Pakistani rulers are not willing to give up the Kashmir issue or their attempts to internationalise it. This is not only against the letter and spirit of the Shimla accord but also against the long-term interest of India as well as Pakistan, rather of the entire subcontinent.

Here, one has also to keep in mind the fact that the economic situation of both India and Pakistan is far from encouraging. It is true that Pakistan's economy is in a particularly bad shape and the country is finding it extremely difficult to meet even its debt obligations to international donors; it is even constrained to contract fresh loans to pay the earlier ones. This is precisely what is called a debt trap.

But on the other hand Indian economy too presents no picture of rosy health. The BJP led government has already made a mess of the Indian economy. Prices are skyrocketing, recession is refusing to die down, foreign debt has increased by 1.607 billion US dollars in the first nine months of fiscal 1998-99 and reached 95.7 billion dollars (The Hindustan Times, June 9).

Further, both the countries rank very low on the human development index and their track records in education, health, housing, drinking water and so many other social sectors are among the worst in the world, except perhaps that of sub-Saharan Africa. In such a situation, both India and Pakistan badly need peace for the sake of social and economic development, and will have to avoid escalation of conflict at all cost, lest they become dependent on the same imperialist powers who are trying to get a foothold in the subcontinent.

IMPERIALIST GAME

The fact is that the US imperialists have always tried to see that Kashmir becomes an independent territory so that they get a foothold in this very strategic area from where India, Pakistan and China can be influenced. Several times Pakistani rulers have even asked the US to intervene in the Kashmir dispute, forgetting that if the cats keep fighting it is the monkey that gets the bread.

In reality, the US and Pakistani perceptions about Kashmir are widely divergent. Whereas Pakistan wants to annex Kashmir to it, the US wants to make the territory independent and subservient to the US geo-political interests. It is for this reason that the US has many times harped on the idea of a plebiscite in Kashmir.

In the situation obtaining today, any involvement of imperialist block in this issue will be particularly harmful for the region as a whole, because there is now no longer any countervailing power to the US game, just what once the Soviet Union was. The US interest in the Central Asian region and its environs (it also has an eye on the rich oil and other resources of the Central Asian region) is patently clear from the fact that it was their sophisticated weapons that enabled the Taliban to capture large parts of Afghanistan and mercilessly crush all opposition in that country.

BJP GOVT'S BUNGLING

As for the BJP-led government, it appears it possibly read too much in the Lahore declaration. In any case, the government woefully neglected the borders, so much so that it either slept or kept the nation in dark for full three weeks after the latest round of infiltration began. George Fernandes, the defence minister, went on to give a certificate of innocence to the Pak prime minister as well as the notorious ISI -- and that too in the presence of prime minister Atal Behari Vajpayee who did not bother to contradict his defence minister. How patently wrong the defence minister's opinion was, was subsequently proved by the Pak admission about the intrusion.

(According to a secret BSF report to the home ministry, reported by The Indian Express in its May 28 issue, the infiltration had begun as far back as January this year, and if this report has got any substance, the government's culpability increases in that very proportion.)

In fact, the BJP-led government woke up only after the intruders, some 700 to 800, had entrenched themselves on high altitudes of upto 18,000 feet, and that too in the bunkers constructed by the Indian army. They also had got sufficient arms and ammunition with them.

However, thanks to the courage, determination and heroism of the Indian armed forces, a large part of the area has been cleared of the intruders, and one hopes that the remaining parts too would get rid of them very soon.

However, even today the BJP government seems to be treating the Kargil issue as a routine government to government issue at the best. What is their motive one does not know, but the plain fact is that it is not a pure military issue at all but a national issue, about which all our countrymen and women are justly concerned and anxious. By and large, except a few inconsequential stray briefings, the government has not cared to take at least the major political parties into confidence.

MINIMAL STEPS REQUIRED

Nor has the government bothered to call a session of the Rajya Sabha to discuss this issue of paramount importance. At a time when there exists no Lok Sabha, the Rajya Sabha is the only forum where the people's representatives can discuss the issue. What is the problem in calling a session of the upper house? Nobody in the government is bothered to answer. Is it a fear about the government's bungling on the issue and neglect of the borders that prevents the ruling combine from taking this minimal step? Or, does the government desire to exploit the Kargil issue for its narrow electoral purposes?

Right now, international opinion is in favour of India and the Pak position on the issue of line of control is so frivolous that even the US is in no position to accept it. The government of India has to move fast and apprise the world public opinion about the situation in Kargil, utilising the NAM and other forums for the purpose. But, again, the BJP led government seems to be sadly lacking in any such effort.

The government of India has also to see that all material and other support is extended to our armed forces who are busy fighting a very tough battle in an extremely rough and difficult terrain. Any irresponsible statement by those like the defence minister can only damage the morale of our armed forces and must have to be avoided. It will be better for all of us to remember that even though a sizeable part of the Kargil sector has been cleared of the intruders, the battle has not yet been won. No complacency is, therefore, permissible regarding national security and integrity.

At the same time, while any move to open bilateral dialogue with Pakistan is welcome, the government of India will have to see that Pakistan is not able to internationalise the Kashmir issue that has been its age-old dream. The government of India has got to stick to the principled stand we adopted ever since 1948 on the issue of Kashmir.