
| NEWSNOTES Andhra Pradesh : Naidu's gamble may not succeed
by Mridul De T he people of Andhra Pradesh are keeping their fingers crossed about the outcome of the forthcoming simultaneous Lok Sabha and Assembly polls in the state. The high-profile Chief Minister of Andhra Pradesh is an enigma to many. He ditched the erstwhile United Front, slowly but steadily veered round to the BJP-led NDA and almost at the eleventh hour joined hands with the BJP, being unmindful about the repercussion such a decision would have on the Muslim minorities who constitute around 10% of the electorate. Who will win? The Congress or the Telugu Desham-BJP combine? The leader of the Telugu Desam Party, and Chief Minister Mr Chandrababu Naidu has come a long way after ditching the erstwhile Third Front.The TDP won the 1994 Assembly election with N.T. Rama Rao, founder of the party, as leader. NTR was the father-in-law of Chandrababu Naidu. Within a year Chandrababu incited revolt in the TDP and removed NTR from the Chief Ministership, NTR died in 1996. After the death of his father-in-law NTR, Chandrababu Naidu assumed the office of Chief Minister and after continuing as the undisputed boss of the TDP and lording over the administration, Chandrababu is faced with election again. The high-profile Chief Minister has changed a lot over the years. In 1998 the BJP would not have succeeded in forming the Government at the Centre if Chandrababu Naidu had not come forward to lend his party support to he BJP. But the TDP was supporting the Vajpayee Government at the Centre from outside. With the Assembly polls declared he has formed alliance with the BJP drawing the ire of the minorities. Chandrababu Naidu however claims that it is just a seat-sharing arrangement with the BJP. But will the Muslims feel secured after the Chief Minister's vote face? To Chandrababu Naidu his political survival is greater than the question of his sticking to political morality. The BJP wants to get a firm foothold in Andhra Pradesh taking the help of Chandrababu Naidu. Naidu's calculations are that he will retain power in the State while conceding more seats for the Lok sabha to the BJP. One needs the other. The BJP wants to capture power at the Centre; Chandrababu Naidu does not want to lose the State. In the 1994 Assembly election N.T.Ramarao allied with the left parties and the TDP-Leftist alliance polled 51% of votes against the BJP. The Congress got just 26 seats only and its share of votes was 3.89%. Like West Bengal in Andhra Pradesh there are 42 Lok Sabha and 294 Assembly seats. In the 1996 Lok sabha election the vote share of the TDP and the Left Parties was reduced. In the 1998 Lok Sabha election the BJP formed and alliance with the Lakshmiparvati, the widow of NTR and the BJP got four seats. The share of votes of the Congress and the TDP was also reduced a little. The TDP's number of seats came down from 16 to 12. The party of Lakshmi-Parvati was virtually wiped out. Guided by his past experience, Chandrababu has now joined hands with the BJP hoping that an alliance with the communal party would deliver the goods -- that is victory in the Assembly election.Like the BJP the TDP led by Naidu does not attach importance to political morality. Of course outcome in any election does not confirm to calculations made earlier. Chandrababu Naidu may be hopeful that despite loss of minority votes he would scrape through the hustings. But if section of the TDP's known supporters ditches the party in the polls, the result might be disappointing both or his party-TDP and himself. Such a possibility was not out of his reckoning. That is why he waited the last moment to align himself and his party with the BJP. That is why Naidu is trying hard to assuage the ruffled feelings of the BJP. He has come to a seat-sharing arrangement with the BJP. Will the voters be as credulous as Chandrababu Naidu deem them to be? He says he is not campaigning for the BJP to help it assume power at the Centre, he simply wants Mr Vajpayee to become the Prime Minsiter. Will his campaign points be acceptable to the voters? There is hardly any difference between the Congress and the Telugu Desam led by Mr Naidu. He even can move with surprise ease between the Congress and the Telugu Desham. He was a Congress MLA and Minister in 1982, again got himself defeated as a Congress candidate in 1963. And just after this he joined the newly formed Telugu Desham. A small farmer owning an acre or two of cultivable land Naidu now happens to be one of the wealthiest men in Andhra Pradesh. The largely circulated Telugu daily "Eenadu" has taken up the responsibility of campaigning for Chandrababu Naidu. Other newspapers and the electronic media too are with him. He takes pride in being called a hightech Chief Minister. Traders, realtors get their demands conceded by the Chief Minister. Criminals traders and industrialists have secured the partys tickets because of their proximity to Naiad. The Andhra Pradesh Congress President, Raj Shekhan Reddy projects an almost identical image of Naidu. The AP Congress President too has behind him a record of forcing four Congress Chief Ministers in the past. Chandrababu Naidu has got around him or his party hundreds of antisocial using government administration. There has been a bomb blast in the house of the TDP Panchayet Minister recently. The Panchayet Minister's house was being used as the TDP office too. All these point to the muscle power of the TDP, which is in no way inferior to that of the Congress. The TDP - BJP combine so long was hogging the major share of the campaign. The combine's campaign started making favorable impact in some constituencies. But the last bomb blast in the TDP Minister's house has caught the party on the wrong foot. A process of rethinking among a section of the electorate has begun. Last week's poor turnout at the Prime Minister's meeting the BJP's lack-luster campaign does not provide any indication till now which way the scale is tilting. |
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