Among the States which went to the polls on Sunday are West Bengal Tripura, North Bihar, parts of Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Maharastra. The first phase of polls was held on 5th September. As the days advanced the BJP's prospects started going downhill the Kargil wind virtually died down, the Mr. Vajpayee's image got a beating and his corrupt policy of importing sugar from a country which had waged a war on India, tarnished his so-called clean image.

But the final phase was all the more ominous as the BJP leadership failed to enlist the full support of the Uttar Prahesh Chief Minister, the BJP's Kalyan Singh in the election campaign. Almost 24 hours before the deadline for campaign Mr. Vajpayee had to address meetings in his own constituency to save his electoral fortunes.

In the 1998 Lok Sabha election the BJP got 57 out of 85 seats and its allies got 3 seats in Uttar Pradesh. This time around, the BJP will lose at least 20 seats than what it had last year. In the first phase election of when 30 seats were involved, the BJP was stated to be losing a few seats. The Congress failed to open its account in the last year's election. The party is likely not only to open its account it may end up with 15 seats or more. The failure to for m a new state comprising nine hilly districts has gone against the BJP. The Muslims have been further alienated from the BJP and the Christian population is fuming as persecution of the Christian minorities has assumed larger proportions. The Muslims have also come a little closer to the Congress. After the first phase of election Mr. Kalyan Singh was summoned to Delhi by Mr. Vajpayee and Mr. L.K. Advani but matters did not improve. The Jats are flocking under the banner of the Jat leader, Mr. Ajit Singh. The BSP too to will wrest a few seats from the BJP. The Marathi daily Lokmat in its survey said that the BJP will get at least 20 seats less in this year's election than in 1998.

In Madhya Pradesh, the BJP is already trailing behind the Congress in polls held in the first two phases. In the last year's election the BJP's kitty swelled because of the party's good shooting in the hustings. The year election to 26 seats were held earlier and the Congress was credited with faring well. The final phase could not be better for the BJP. The Congress Chief Minister, Mr. Digvijoy Singh claims that the Congress would get at least 22 seats this year phase in Madhya Pradesh. The BJP leadership may be hopeful of doing well in Madhya Pradesh, does not brag about sweeping the polls after the final phase. Moreover the percentage of votes polled in Madhya Pradesh in the first two phases is poor. In Madhya Pradesh previous records show that the difference between the vote share of the BJP and the Congress is just around 15%. If the Congress, now very much upbeat, if fares better, its kitty of seats will be larger.

In Maharastha Mr. Sharad power by coming closer to the BJP-Shiv Sena has lost the support of the Dalit and the Muslims. The benefit will accrue to the Congress or the Samajbadi Party Mr. Mulayam Singh. It is assumed that 54% of the Dalit and Muslim voters will never round the Congress or the Samjabadi Party, to some extent. The split in the Congress may not seriously affect the Congress. The diehard supporters of the BJP-Shiv Sena are not sure if their respective outfits together will win 30 of the 42 Lok Sabha seats in Maharastra.

In the states of Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, Haryana and Delhi the prospects are not bright for the BJP and its allies. The BJP-Akali combine won all the 13 seats in Punjab last year. The rivalry between Mr. Gurucharan Singh Tohra and Mr. Prakash Singh Badal is so acute that the BJP and its allies may not even win a single seat this time. The Sikh vote is vertically splite. The Congress and the Left parties will benefit from the split in the Sikh votes this time. But the Congress may cut a sorry figure in Himachal Pradesh because of its continued support to the Bansilal government. There will be no major change in Himachal Pradesh. The BJP won three of the four seats in the State. The outcome may be same again.

The euphorla of the Telugu Desham Party in Andhra Pradesh is no longer evident among the TDP leaders. Before the election they said that out of 294 Assembly seats TDP would romp home with 220-225 seats. Now they say that if the TDP fares unsatisfactorily, it will get 150 Assembly seats. So far as the Lok Sabha polls are concerned the TDP leaders say that if everything goes well, the TDP-BJP combine may win 33 of the 42 Lok Sabha seats. Indications are that Congress will win in 20/22 Lok Sabha seats in Adhra Pradesh whatever he TDP/BJP leadership may claim.

The BJP is going to lose a few Lok Sabha seats which it had own last time in Karnatak, in this year's election. With the Congress President Sonia Gandhi contesting the election from Bellary, the Congress mood is upbeat and the party besides winning previous 9 seats may get wrest a few from the BJP too. The Janata Dal(U) is a divided house and the animosity between the JD(U) and the BJP still presists.

In Gujarat, the anti incumbency factory is very much in the play. The atrocities on the Christians, the water crises are all very much in the minds of the electorate. Overall the BJP may be taught a lesson by the electorate though the state has a BJP government in Gujarat.