These elections had acquired importance because apart from other issues, the central issue was whether in a country as diverse as India, people would allow the communal forces to come to power. Prior to the 1998 elections, though communal parties had found representation in governments at the centre, it was only in the last elections that they had become the dominant party. Experience of their 13 months in office has clearly shown the repurcussions that it can have on the body politic of the country, and the danger to national unity in a country inhabited by people belonging to various religious faiths, speaking different languages and having different cultural heritage. The brief stint of the BJP-led alliance government at the centre had clearly shown that the minorities are not safe and they always felt threatened. Simultaneously there was an attack on the secular edifice in various spheres. This was more pronounced in the educational sphere.

The BJP alliance, bereft of any issue to project before the people, whether in the form of achievements of its government or as issues that it would resolve if voted back to power, had to rely solely on projecting one personality. A.B. Vajpayee was projected as opposed to Sonia Gandhi, as though the whole election was confined to a contest between the two.

The BJP led alliance when it was invited to form the government, still lacked a majority. But it was the last minute decision of the TDP to join hands with them and offer outside support that gave the BJP a slender majority. How precarious this was became evident when another partner in its alliance, the AIADMK withdrew support. The government fell and fresh elections were held.

US imperialism was interested in seeing the BJP make a comeback. So were large sections of big business, though they rallied behind them in the name of stability. Though the earlier governments were also pursuing economic policies beneficial to big business and multinationals, the BJP which started with the slogan of Swadeshi but made a complete somersault, opened the floodgates for multinational corporations. In the realm of foreign policy too, the BJP-led government's policies made a complete reversal with a definite tilt towards US imperialism. Even relations with neighbours which had improved during the tenure of the UF government deteriorated after the BJP assumed power. When US imperialism was trying to impose its hegemony all over the world, in the aftermath of the disintegration of the Soviet Union, instead of playing a role in defence of the Non-Aligned Movement and resistance to imperialism, the BJP government started succumbing to US pressures.

The BJP led alliance has come back to power, based on a slender majority. Earlier, there was no hesitancy on their part to take over to their side, parties which had fought against them and campaigned against their policies.

Our electoral system allows parties who do not command a majority of the percentage of votes, but who command a majority of seats, to rule. The country has for years together been ruled by parties that do not have the backing or support of the majority of the people. This is true in case of this government too. But major bourgeoies political parties have not found the CPI(M) and the Left proposal for introducing electoral reforms acceptable.

POWER BY ANY MEANS

During the elections, the BJP made unprecedented use of the electronic and print media to its advantage. Apart from misleading propaganda, various opinion and exit polls were published showing them well-placed and to be sweeping the elections. But the actual results have found these calculations to be misplaced.

The BJP made an all out effort to somehow or the other come back to power. In entered into all sorts of unholy alliances with parties and groups that it had been opposed to and had been fighting all along. Take the JD(U) for instance. A major breakaway faction of the original JD, the majority of its leaders had been fierce advocates of the Mandal Commission, whose recommendations were accepted by the V.P. Singh Government. The then President of the BJP, L.K. Advani had begun his rath yatra aimed at demolishing the Babri Mosque in Ayodhya, as a measure to counter the effects of the acceptance of the Mandal Commission report. For years together these opponents and advocates of the Mandal Commission -- Mandal and Kamandal -- fought against each other. Now just on the eve of the elections, opponents and advocates have embraced each other.

The results however have not shown any gains at all for the BJP. If anything the BJP's total tally has comedown marginally. But some of its allies like the DMK and the TDP have contributed to increasing the combined strength of the alliance. But it should be noted that both these parties had during the course of the campaign itself sought to demarcate themselves from the policies of the BJP. Minus the 30 of the TDP and the 12 of the DMK, the BJP alliance falls very short of majority.

DISPERATE RESULTS

The voting pattern in these elections had differed between region and region. In Tamilnadu there has been a shift in favour of the DMK. In Andhra Pradesh, the TDP has been able to improve very much and also win the Assembly. However, in Karnataka, the BJP-JDU alliance fared miserably with the BJP getting seven and the JDU three, with the rest of the 18 going to the Congress. The Congress has gained an absolute majority in the Karnataka Assembly. In Kerala, the alliance has not been able to make any breakthrough with both the UDF and the LDF maintaining their ground at 11 and 9 respectively. In the North, in Punjab, the BJP-Akali alliance had been badly routed getting only three seats out of the 14 (including Chandigarh), as against the 13 held by them earlier. But the smaller states of Haryana, Himachal and Delhi, tell a different story, with the BJP and its allies making a sweep. In Rajasthan too there has been a shift in favour of the BJP. In Bihar and Orissa the alliance has gained. But it is UP, from which the BJP had great expectations, that sent their calculations awry. Here the BJP had 57 seats. Now they have been reduced to a mere 29 -- or roughly half their earlier strength.

However, at the all-India level, the tally of the Congress has gone down further. From 141 in the last Lok Sabha they have been reduced to 134, a loss of seven seats, despite their better performance in Karnataka and Punjab. They lost badly in Rajasthan, due to their own ineptness. They had won 18 seats last time and later went on to get a majority in the Assembly elections, held just five months back. The Jat community was up in arms against the Congress government for failing to implement a decision taken by the Backward Classes Commission to grant reservations to the community. This was a decision that the BJP did not implement. Despite promising it, the Congress government failed to notify it, leading to the community opting for the BJP. As far as Haryana is concerned, the Congress spokesman himself has accepted that it was the decision first to bail out the HVP government and later on withdrawing support, leading to the formation of the Chautala government that was its undoing. In Orissa, a change of guard did not benefit the Congress, as the results indicate, with the BJD-BJP alliance gaining the upper hand.

The picture in Maharashtra is completely different. Whereas the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance has gained the upper hand in the Lok Sabha elections, it has failed to get a majority in the Assembly elections held simultaneously. The BJP-SS combine has won 124, the Congress 77 and the NCP 57. This clearly shows that had not the NCP split away from the Congress the results of the Lok Sabha elections would have been different. The Congress and the NCP together have won 134 seats, ten more than the BJP-SS. Had it been a united Congress, the Assembly results would also have been different.

As opposed to the BJP-led alliance and the Congress and allies, the CPI(M) has been able to maintain its position at 32. This despite the fact that the overall strength of the Left has also come down. The CPI(M) has won both the seats in Tripura. In West Bengal, whereas it has lost four sitting seats, it has gained another. Its strength is 21. Apart from the six sitting seats in Kerala, it has gained two more. The CPI(M) has been able to make a breakthrough in Tamilnadu, winning a seat from Madurai. Thus its total comes to 32.

This victory of the BJP-led alliance should not lead the people to believe that the period of instability is over and a stable regime has been put in place. The very fact that the BJP has been unable to improve upon its tally even marginally, whereas that of its allies has gone up (in some cases considerably), reflects badly on the BJP. It will be much more precariously placed, with the added strength that its allies have gained. During the course of the campaign itself two of its allies, the DMK and the TDP had sought to distance and demarcate themselves. The DMK had said that it had nothing to do with the policies of the BJP, while the TDP leader Chandrababu Naidu had said that the alliance with the BJP was confined to these elections alone. Naidu, however, did make a modification to this statement, later on. But the increased strength of its allies, gives them more bargaining power and more leverage. Many of these parties will be forced to oppose the pursuit of the Hindutva agenda by the BJP in government. Most of them represent regional aspirations and their outlook and perceptions come in conflict and contradict the positions of the BJP. But at the same time these parties have, by opting to go for an alliance with the BJP, invited the danger of the communal virus spreading in their respective states. The DMK had gone over to the BJP not because of any ideological affinity, but just because of its archrival in the state, the AIADMK leaving the BJP led front. Both could not be in the same boat, the DMK leadership felt, and hence their decision. The TDP on the other hand had its own calculations. These conflicts are bound to give rise to contradictions.

There is going to be another conflict also. The RSS and its outfits will maintain pressure on the BJP not to give up its own agenda. During the course of the election campaign itself, RSS Chief Rajinder Singh had made it clear that the Muslims have to voluntarily given up their claim over religious shrines not only Ayodhya, but Kashi and Mathura also. The Shiv Sena will also not give as playing its chauvinistic-communal role. If the BJP yields to this pressure, constituents like the DMK and TDP will find it difficult to remain with them. Many other constituents will also face a similar problem. Therefore it is a very tricky situation.

Will the allies accept the orientation of the pro-monopoly, pro-big business economic policies of the BJP? Though many of them agree with the BJP, they will find the going difficult once the burden of these policies falls on the common man and their mass support starts eroding. Let us take the example of the hike in diesel prices. This 40 percent hike in the price of diesel was effected after the election process was over. One ally of the BJP, the INLD led by Omprakash Chautala has already expressed his opposition to the hike. This is just the beginning and many more such instances are bound to arise in the future, unless the BJP is willing to radically change the orientation of its economic policy, which is unlikely.