Though the immediate provocation seems to be the sacking of the Chief of the Army Staff, General Pervez Musharraf, the situation in Islamabad was uncertain for quite some time. The worsening economic conditions had already alienated vast sections of the people from the Nawaz Sharief regime. But it was the Kargil conflict that had landed the regime in a tight spot.

The Kargil intrusion was part of a concerted bid made by the Pakistani ruling establishment, in concert with the military top brass, to intensify its activities in Kashmir. It was not just the snow-capped mountains of Kargil that the intruders had occupied. Around the same number had been sent to the Kashmir Valley also. These included professionals from the Taliban militia. Simultaneously, diplomatic efforts ostensibly to improve relations with India were on. The bus trip by prime minister Atal Behari Vajpayee and the now defamed Lahore Declaration were all part of it. It has now been revealed that the Kargil operation was being put into place even while the declaration was being signed. The civilian and military leadership in Pakistan had hoped that the combined effort of the intruders both in the mountainous heights and inside the valley would lead to a situation resolving the Kashmir problem to their advantage.

The discovery of intruders in Kargil came as a surprise to the BJP-led government, which was lulled into complacency thanks to the Lahore Declaration. The Indian defence minister, George Fernandes sought to absolve the civilian administration in Pakistan by stating that it was not involved and it was the game plan of the Pakistani army.

UNDER US PRESSURE

Just a few months before the Kargil conflict, Nawaz Sharief had sacked the Chief of Army Staff, Karamat and handpicked Pervez Musharraf for the job. It was Musharraf who was handling the training of the Mujahideen. 

Totally unprepared for such an eventuality, the Indian armed forces had a challenging job before them. They had to evict the enemy, well-entrenched in bunkers that the Indian army had built. While the enemy was well-placed, sitting on top, our soldiers had to advance from below. It was this factor that led to a number of causalities. The heroism displayed by the Indian soldiers finally led to the successful eviction of the intruders from the Kargil area. At this juncture, the US administration pressurised Pakistani prime minister, Nawaz Sharief for a speedy end to the conflict and withdrawal of the intruders from across the Line of Control. The Sharief-Clinton declaration, however, did not call for the recall of infiltrators who had been pushed into the Kashmir Valley. The saving grace for Sharief was a clause in the declaration that president Clinton would take personal interest in the resolution of the Kashmir dispute.

This however was not taken kindly by the army. They had planned to keep the conflict going and keep the armed forces engaged. They had calculated that if the conflict continued for two more months, it would be difficult for the Indian forces to advance, due to inclement weather and snow. Moreover they were in a favourable position as far as logistics and supplies were concerned. Prolonging the conflict would also have provided them time to intensify their activities in the valley and work up the sentiments of the people.

SITUATION IN THE VALLEY

The situation in the Kashmir Valley has also undergone a dramatic change as compared to what existed in 1997. The tenure of the United Front government at the centre saw near normalcy being restored in the Valley and an overwhelming urge for peace. This was reflected in the Assembly elections which saw more than 50 percent of the people casting their votes. People reposed their confidence in the traditional party, the National Conference. Unfortunately, this urge for peace and development could not be exploited by the National Conference. The regime seemed to be unconcerned with the aspirations and problems of the mass of the people. With the assumption of power by the BJP-led alliance at the Centre after the 1998 elections the problem in the Valley accentuated.

The BJP has been the only national party that has consistently been opposing the granting of special status to the state under Article 370 of the Constitution and demanding its abrogation. It was such a party and a government headed by it, to which the N.C. extended support after the 1998 elections. The miserable conditions of the people, combined with the opportunistic politics of the National Conference, provided a fertile ground for the fundamentalist forces to thrive. While they intensified their activities, the infiltrators also started making moves. Side by side with the engagement in Kargil, attacks on Army pickets and other such incidents took place in the Valley. The atmosphere prevailing in 1997-98 had radically been altered. A reflection of this was the extremely low turnout in the recent Lok Sabha elections. Simultaneously, efforts were made to derail the poll process by killings, kidnappings, etc.

As mentioned earlier, the Clinton-Nawaz Sharief declaration was not to the liking of the Pakistan armed forces. Sharief sought to argue that the purpose of the intrusion had been served with the internationalisation of the Kashmir issue and the "personal interest" evinced by President Clinton.

Former Pakistan Premier and leader of the Pakistan People's Party, Benazir Bhutto came out with a proposal toeing the American line. As a matter of fact it is a US proposal that is being mouthed by her. She has proposed that the "two sides of Kashmir (one side occupied by Pakistan) should have open and porus borders. Both sections would be demilitarised and patrolled by either an international peace-keeping force or a joint India-Pakistani peacekeeping force. Both legislative councils would continue to meet separately and on occasion jointly. The people on both sides of divided Kashmir could meet and interact freely and informally. None of these steps would prejudice or prejudge the position of both countries on the disputed areas."

US PROPOSAL

Praveen Swami, writing in Frontline, October 22, 1999 has pointed to the existence of a confidential document issued by the New York based Kashmir Study Group (KSG), "Kashmir: A Way Forward". The document, Praveen Swami writes, "outlines five proposals for either one or two new states, which it describes somewhat mysteriously as `sovereign entity but one without an international personality.''

The KSG document says that the "new entity would have its own secular, democratic constitution, as well as its own citizenship, flag and legislature which would legislate on all matters other than defence and foreign affairs....India and Pakistan would be responsible for defence of the Kashmiri entity, which would itself maintain police and gendarme forces for internal law and order purposes. India and Pakistan would be expected to work out financial arrangements for the Kashmiri entity, which could include a currency of its own".

Also contained in the document are other proposals including the creation of two separate Kashmirs on either side of the LoC, as is now being advocated by Ms. Bhutto.

Pakistan has been an old and steadfast ally of the US in this region. Though the US is trying to help out the Pakistani ruling establishment, given the changed nature of the ruling establishment in India, it does not want to annoy India either. The changed world situation combined with the changed perception of the Indian ruling establishment calls for a change in American strategic plans in the region. While the US would not like to abandon Pakistan, the BJP-led government is seeking a partnership with the US. It is for this reason that imperialism was keen on a victory for the BJP alliance.

The developments in Pakistan do not come as a surprise. There had been warnings of a coup earlier also. The bad shape of the economy and the miserable conditions of the people had led to brewing discontent. Sharief sought to divert attention from this by resorting to fundamentalism. He passed legislation making Shariat the law, which only gave added strength to the fundamentalist forces. But this did not stop forces opposed to his regime from mobilising the people against the regime. Imposing such a system in Pakistan would not be a smooth affair. It is a badly divided society -- there is constant friction between the Shias and Sunnis. The various tribal people that inhabit big parts of the country follow different traditions and customs.

DEMORALISED ARMY

The Kargil fiasco gave rise to demoralisation within the Pakistani army. It blamed the civilian leadership for bowing to American pressure. The economic condition worsened after the conflict. The army in Pakistan itself is not averse to using fundamentalism to prop up its regime. Therefore one should not entertain any illusions that the coup will curb fundamentalist forces.

The Pakistan army has a tradition of running the government. Whereas at times it has taken direct control of the administration, at other times it has exercised pressure and influence over the administration. Pervez Musharraf had an inkling of the sentiments of the armed forces and its annoyance with the civilian leadership. It seems that there has been no challenge to his act of toppling the Nawaz Sharief government from within the armed forces. Nawaz Sharief himself had invoked the support of the armed forces to change the Chief Justice, the President and for settling various other civilian disputes.

Though Nawaz Sharief had earlier denied reports of a rift between the him and the Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces, his doubts about the loyalty of Pervez continued. He utilised the opportunity of the visit of Pervez Musharraf to Colombo to sack him. This move however backfired and Pervez Musharraf has staged a coup. Sharief has been put under house arrest and the army has taken control over key establishments.

However, what is of concern is the fact that there has been no indication of protest whatsoever over this takeover by the armed forces. Ms. Bhutto, while endorsing the step taken by the armed forces, has called for restoration of civilian government at the earliest. The US has also mildly called for restoration of a civilian government. It would be too early to expect General Pervez Musharraf to unfold his entire programme for the future, and the line he is going to adopt on the central issue of Kashmir. In a speech broadcast over Pakistan Television, late in the night after the coup, he has just said that

"country has gone through turmoil, and the economy is in a state of collapse. The armed forces have been urged by all sides of the political divide to protect the country. The Prime Minister ignored all my advices. All of you look to us for stability, but the PM tried to politicise and destablize the army.....For the moment I wish to assure you that the situation in the country is stable and under control. The armed forces will never let you down."