It will be noted here that the formation of an NDA government at the centre is itself the result of a considerable scaling down of the BJP's ambitions. Earlier, in 1996, the BJP tried to come to power on its own, and failed. Then it fought the 1998 elections on its own manifesto though, realising that in a country of immense diversities like India it has no chance of coming to power on its own at present, it entered into alliances with several regional parties in various parts of the country; soon the BJP was compelled to even formulate a National Agenda for Governance, signed by 13 parties, while postponing several items of its own agenda. And finally it had to issue a joint manifesto for the 1999 elections with several, though not all, of its alliance partners.

But this has its own story to tell. Ostensibly, the BJP leaders have at the moment accepted the fact that the era of coalitions has begun. But the RSS, that forms the backbone of the BJP, and its allied outfits are still singing a different tune. If one goes through the recent issues of the RSS mouthpiece Organiser, one will find the high voltage propaganda that the NDA's victory was in fact due to an unprecedented "Hindu upsurge," and that it is the allies who see no chance for them if they don't take note of this supposed upsurge and align with the BJP. Talking of "Hindu nationalism," RSS sarkaryavah, H V Sheshadri said, "For the past many decades, especially since Independence, anti-Hindu forces prevailed in the country. Now there is evidence of change in the mindset as people are increasingly becoming aware of the national renaissance," The same theme was earlier raised by the RSS chief Professor Rajendra Singh in his brief speech at Nagpur on Vijayadashami day. But this sort of propaganda just overlooks one simple point -- that it is the BJP's allies that were the major gainers in the recently concluded Lok Sabha elections; otherwise, the BJP's own vote share has come down and it barely managed to maintain its tally of seats.

THREAT TO NATIONAL UNITY

Be that as it may, the 13th Lok Sabha will have two major issues before it. First of them is the issue of communalism and the threat it poses to national unity. Despite the repeated pronouncements of good intentions by BJP leaders, the fact is that they are believed by nobody, least of all by the minorities. Even during the elections, at Lucknow, Vajpayee's own constituency, Professor Rajendra Singh had said that the RSS had not given up its goal of temple construction at the Babri site, and also "advised" the Muslims to willingly give up their claims on the mosques at Mathura and Varanasi. At that time Vajpayee or any other BJP leader did not show the guts to oppose the RSS chief's contention of even distance himself from it.

And now the VHP and Bajrang Dal have unleashed an intense campaign against the Christians. Their immediate target is the scheduled visit to India by Pope John Paul II, religious head of the Catholic Christians. The latest issue of the Organiser has also carried as many as three, highly vituperative articles against the Pope's visit. The VHP and Bajrang Dal have even started a yatra from Goa in order to incite anti-Christian sentiments; the yatra will reach Delhi on November 4, one day before the Pope's visit commences. Initially, these communal organisations were opposed to the visit itself. But seeing no favourable response, they changed their tune; now they are making all sorts of preposterous demands, like the Pope should apologise for the atrocities committed by the Portuguese in Goa three or four centuries ago, he should pronounce against "forcible" conversions, or the Vatican should "stop aiding the ultra groups in the North East," and so on. All this has sent a wave of panic among the Christian and other minorities.

It should be noted here that India has a very big population of the minority communities, something like 180 millions, and that if these minorities get isolated from the national mainstream, this is bound to have severe repercussions for the nation's unity and stability.

It is here that the BJP's allies will be facing a tough test. Most of these allies, barring the Shiv Sena, have been professing secularism, and in the days to come the people will be watching to see how far these allies are prepared to go to ward off the impending dangers to the nation's unity and stability. Some of them did try to rebuke the VHP's campaign against the Pope's visit, but in a very muted voice which was almost unnoticeable.

Apart from secularism, many of the BJP's allies have been ardent champions of federalism also, the second pillar of India's unity. They have been correct in thinking that secularism and federalism are essential ingredients of any polity, particularly in a multi-religious, multi-lingual and multi-ethnic country like India. But, if one goes by their record during the earlier tenure of the BJP-led government, one only gets disappointed by their performance. Even when blatant anti-federal authoritarian steps were being taken by the centre, like the two attempts to dislodge the elected Bihar government through the misuse of Article 356, the BJP's allies chose to remain tight-lipped. But their role will assume extra significance in the days to come. For, if they wish, by their sheer numbers they can prevent the government from taking any anti-democratic and anti-secular step. It is because of this fact that the people of the country will by keenly observing their performance.

ECONOMIC ISSUES

But the RSS is not only for giving up "foreign thoughts and principles" like secularism. On Vijayadashami day Professor Rajendra Singh even sought to castigate the concept of secularism as "the consequence of a slave mentality." On the same day, H V Sheshadri, the sarkaryavah of the RSS, also pronounced in favour of a "new economic order" which means a big rightward shift in economic policies. However, there is nothing surprising in this. For, the RSS-BJP's preferences in the spheres of economic, foreign and defence policies have always been known.

This will be the second major issue before the 13th Lok Sabha. The NDA government has assumed office at a time when the Indian economy is in a very bad shape, mainly because of the deeds of the Vajpayee government in its earlier tenure. Even before the election results were out, the central government hiked the price of high speed diesel which, as expected, has started having its cascading effect on the people's life. As diesel is required for many agricultural operations, the price hike will only escalate the cost of agricultural production, adding to the food insecurity of the people at large. At the same time, diesel is also required for rail and road transport and therefore the Vajpayee government's step of hiking its price will lead to price rise of all commodities across the board. Already bus fares have been hiked in Delhi, Orissa and some other states. This single act of the Vajpayee government is going to heap a lot more of miseries on our people.

But this is not all. Consider the following --

1) Even before taking the oath of office, Vajpayee told the people that they will have to prepare for some harsh measures.

2) Finance minister Yashwant Sinha has threatened that the government is thinking of phasing out fertiliser subsidy.

3) In an interview on a private TV channel, Sinha also threatened that the people will have to be ready to "properly" pay for the services they avail of. He was talking of social services like education and health, public distribution system, power, etc. The government is thinking of phasing out sugar from the public distribution system.

4) Prime minister Vajpayee has indicated his preference for taking the public sector disinvestment under his personal charge. This is meant to expedite the dismantling of profitable public sector undertakings and handing them over to Indian and foreign corporate houses on a platter. This also involves the possibility of a quid pro quo, as was suspected to have taken place in the telecom sector, then under Vajpayee himself. Privatisation of the insurance sector and many nationalised banks is also on the anvil.

5) The prime minister has also indicated that he would like the private sector's participation in the provision of social services. This means the government is eager to shirk its responsibility in respect of these services which are so vital for the people. However, while the rich already have private schools for their children, private hospitals, etc., the prime minister's move can only deprive the poor of whatever schooling and treatment facilities are left with them.

6) And the latest news is that they are thinking of raising railway fares and freight charges.

All this is according to the promise Yashwant Sinha made to the IMF and World Bank, in the very midst of the election process, that his government would expedite the "reform" process. But this can have one and only one meaning: escalation in the prices of essentials of life, an immense burden on the mass of Indian people, a big reduction in their purchasing power, consequent growth in all round misery and poverty, and may be even starvation deaths. This is what the NDA government has in store for the Indian people.

But here also the BJP's allies are going to face a major test. If they are at all sensitive to the people's aspirations, as they claim to be, the question is: Will they be able to support whatever anti-people steps the government chooses to take? In fact, just to take care of their own electoral prospects, they will have to make their voice felt and oppose such steps. Failure to do so carries the risk of a substantial erosion in their mass base. Already some of the BJP's allies like the TDP, INLD, Akali Dal and the MDMK have protested against the diesel price hike, though their protest was too muted to have any impact on the government.

At the same time the Congress too will have to realise that if it supports the NDA government's economic policies in the name of supporting globalisation and liberalisation, it will have to suffer further erosion of its mass support which has already greatly dwindled since the new economic policy was unleashed in June 1991.