The immediate result of the Senate decision is easing of US pressure on India to sign the CTBT. For the present, it has let the Vajpayee government off the hook. It is however necessary to recall how the Vajpayee government in its previous stint of thirteen months, after relentless American pressure, had committed India to sign the CTBT.

Consequent to the Pokhran tests in May 1998, the Vajpayee government had entered into clandestine negotiations with the United States. The eight-month long Jaswant Singh-Strobe Talbott talks led to the BJP-led government committing itself to sign the treaty by September 1999, which was set as the deadline for the entry into force of the Treaty. In November 1998, the Vajpayee government asked the United States to give it some time to create a consensus on the issue, but the fall of the government in April 1999, enabled the Vajpayee government to postpone the decision on the grounds that a caretaker government could not take such a decision.

Throughout the election campaign, the BJP leadership continued assuring the United States, through repeated statements, that it was committed to signing the CTBT, and the new government would take up the matter after the elections.

When the new BJP-led government was formed after the elections, Prime Minister Vajpayee made a clear statement about the CTBT, coming before the American Senate's rejection of the Treaty. In an interview to the American magazine Newsweek, (October 18), Vajpayee had stated: "We were in the process of building a national consensus on the issue of signing the CTBT when domestic political developments forced a mid-term general election. That process of securing a national consensus will now be resumed once a new government is in place. Some matching action by our key interlocutors will help build the consensus."

The CPI(M) has consistently opposed the signing of the CTBT in line with its stand that India should not be a party to any unequal and discriminatory treaty. At the same time, the Party has opposed the Vajpayee government's decision of going in for nuclear weaponisation. The best approach would be to continue to strive for universal nuclear disarmament by getting the nuclear weapon states to agree to a time-frame for the destruction of all nuclear weapons. Till then, India should refrain from nuclear testing and production of nuclear weapons while refusing to accept the unequal nuclear order.

FALL-OUT OF POKHRAN TESTS

Contrary to this, the BJP-led government began the harmful course of nuclear testing and weaponisation leading to Pakistan reciprocating with its tests and thereby initiating the nuclear arms race in the sub-continent. After embarking on such a nuclear policy, the Vajpayee government quickly caved in to American pressure. Within six months of the Pokhran tests, the BJP-led government gave a committment to sign the CTBT. The dubious rationale it offered for this action was that having declared itself a nuclear weapon state after testing, India should now join the club of nuclear weapon countries and be a party to the enforcement of the unequal nuclear order whereby those outside the club should be kept out.

The decision to sign the CTBT was taken under the shadow of coercive action. The Vajpayee government compromised India's sovereignty and independent powers by offering to join the CTBT, while being subject to the sanctions imposed by the United States and other G-7 countries.

That the Vajpayee government's hasty decision was harmful to India has become clear with the United States Senate's rejection of the CTBT. The United States has, at present, around 6,000 nuclear weapons which is half the number it had in the late 1980s. But this is much more than what the other nuclear weapon states possess. Even if the American arsenal were to be reduced to 3,000 weapons, in the unlikely event of the Start-II Treaty being implemented, it still would command the world's most formidable nuclear arsenal. The Clinton Administration and the Democrats had argued that the CTBT would effectively prevent potential states from testing and producing nuclear weapons, and with the existing stockpile of weapons held by the US, it could maintain its superiority.

The aggressive and chauvinist conservative Republican lobby is opposed to any arms control measures and wants the unbridled right of the US to go on producing new nuclear weapons and missile systems. (See article elsewhere in this issue - Ed) The Senate vote should also make those who argued for joining the CTBT as the best option to advance nuclear disarmament rethink. It is unrealistic to expect the US ruling circles to give up nuclear hegemony. In fact, the Clinton Administration by developing new missile systems for deployment by the US and introducing a new Theatre Missile Defence Programme in East Asia, is forcing other countries, primarily Russia and China, to take reciprocal measures.

The United States sees the CTBT as a non-proliferation measure which would be a step to ensure that nuclear weapons remain with the five countries in the nuclear club and also ensure overwhelming American nuclear superiority.

While the Senate's majority stand represents the more reactionary face of US imperialism, one should not forget that, for India and other third world countries, the American stand on non-proliferation is one which is full of hypocrisy and double standards. Till the US ruling classes agree to abandon nuclear weapons as a strategic instrument for dominance, it will not be possible to go towards genuine nuclear disarmament.

Till that time, the stand adopted prior to the Vajpayee government's decision to go for testing and weaponisation, is still the best course open to India. Not being a party to any discriminatory treaty, refraining from weaponisation and actively working for complete nuclear disarmament would be in full conformity with India's strategic interests and a progressive role in the world arena.

BJP PERSISTS IN ITS STAND

But the BJP-led government is far from adopting such a course. Even after the American Senate's rejection of the CTBT, the government continues to repeat that it is committed to a consensus to sign the CTBT. Foreign Minister Jaswant Singh stressed that India's stand on the CTBT issue remains "unaltered". He repeated the Prime Minister's stand at the UN General Assembly last year, that India will not come in the way of entry into force of the CTBT. That the BJP-led government sticks to this position is significant, as it indicates the depth of the commitment and understanding with the US Administration.

Even the serious developments in Pakistan do not seem to have made any impact on government thinking. Jaswant Singh declared that there was no need to consider any change on the CTBT on account of the developments in Pakistan. The coup in Pakistan has led to the military taking charge. It was just a few months ago that India was drawn into a military conflict in Kargil with these very forces. Despite all the talk about confidence-building measures, both countries are now set on the course of nuclear weaponisation. The new developments in Pakistan with an army in collusion with fundamentalist forces, will naturally cause concern to India and the world. If anything, the events in Pakistan highlight the dangers of nuclearisation of South Asia. The rhetoric of nuclear deterrence contributing to the peace and security in the region sounds puerile and irresponsible when faced with the volatility and dangers inherent in the situation.

SERIOUS RE-APPRAISAL REQUIRED