It should be noted that the international trade agreements in the last decade have only helped in widening the socio-economic gap between the industrialised and developing countries. After the GATT was replaced by the WTO and the TRIPS agreement came into being, enormous difficulties have been posed for the developing countries. While the WTO ostensibly promotes competition, the TRIPS bestows monopoly power upon the MNCs in possession of patents. As we had been warning all along, the prices of life saving drugs have gone beyond the reach of the common man. The patenting of life forms, including seed varieties, will also have disastrous effects. Under the provisions of the TRIPS, traditional knowledge (like plant varieties with medicinal value, etc) have no form of protection from being patented. A classic example is the case of neem and turmeric. There is tremendous pressure on India to amend its patent act by December 31, 1999. Pressure is also being mounted on India to amend its plant variety legislation in line with the UPOV convention. Both these bills are being sought to be introduced in the coming session of parliament.

The WTO conference will witness mounting pressure on countries like India to open up their agriculture and give market access to agricultural products from the developed countries. The removal of a certain amount of trade barriers has already resulted in a marked change in cropping patterns, giving rise to fears of undermining our food security. The growth of foodgrain production has come down to 1.66 per cent per year. The area under foodgrain cultivation is going down as it is being diverted to other crops like cotton and soya. India has already lost the battle in the dispute settlement mechanism of the WTO where it was dragged by the USA. The USA, which wanted a faster phasing-out of quantitative restrictions, has predictably won the case. This will ensure that the Indian market is flooded with wheat and butter from the advanced countries shortly. Heavily subsidised wheat from the developed world would be pumped into the country at the expense of our local produce.

WEIGHTY ISSUES

However, the most important of all new issues, which has been under the study of a WTO working group since 1997, is investment. The developed countries are seeking to start negotiations on a WTO agreement to govern foreign investment. If the Multilateral Investment Agreement (MIA) comes to be agreed upon, it stands to take over much of the power of sovereign governments to formulate and legislate their policies on investment. Governments of sovereign countries cannot impose any restrictions on the quantity or composition of foreign direct investment (FDI). This in essence would mean that workers would stand to lose their bargaining power. It will also have a negative effect on the balance of payments position, etc.

Another equally important issue, if not more important, for countries like India is the proposal to include the so-called social clause as part of the WTO. While any agreement to bring an improvement in the working conditions of and benefits to the workers would be welcome, this does not seem to be the motive behind the clamour for the introduction of such a clause. The real threat the developed countries apprehend is about the competition from products manufactured in the developing countries. The proposed clause would lay down penalties like sanctions on countries that do not have certain specified minimum labour standards.

No review or re-negotiation of the agreements already arrived upon has taken place, despite it being provided for. Instead, what we see is an effort by the developed countries to pressurise others to agree to commence negotiations for a new agreement on world trade. In the five years since the last negotiations were concluded, there have not been any gains for the developing countries to boast of. While the average growth rate of exports from the developing countries has fallen, the period has simultaneously seen a growth in exports from the developed countries. This is on account of the tariff regime which has benefitted the developed countries. The gains made by the developing countries from enhanced access to foreign markets have not been huge enough to tide over the loss due to bigger international intervention in their domestic markets. Moreover, the benefits in tariffs have far outweighed the non-tariff barriers in sectors where the developing countries have an edge. Added to this is the fact that benefits are yet to arrive in domains like textiles where the developing countries have an advantage. In sum, contrary to what the developed countries and the ruling classes in our country had wanted us to believe, while the developing countries had to open up their markets to international plunder, the developed countries saw to it that protectionist policies for their markets were put in place.

THREATS WITHIN THE COUNTRY

Successive governments at the centre have, instead of taking up the cause of the developing countries, tended to subserve the interests of imperialism and transnational capital. The process of liberalisation initiated under the Narasimha Rao dispensation in 1991 continues unabated. Within days of assuming office, the Vajpayee government has initiated measures aimed at further privatising the public sector, opening up all sectors of the economy to foreign capital and virtually yielding to the demands of the big business houses. After the sale of GAIL shares at outrageously low prices, there is a proposal for the National Thermal Power Corporation to buy the government's stake in the National Hydro Power Corporation. The proceeds from the sale of the government's stake in the public sector undertakings will go towards bridging the budgetary deficit. The introduction of the Insurance Regulatory and Development Authority Bill and the proposal of the Verma Committee to privatise the nationalised banks will lead to the handing over of the financial sector to speculative foreign capital.

The winter session of parliament will see the government seeking to push over various other similar legislations that will seek to further liberalise the Indian economy and privatise industry.

Unfortunately, the principal opposition party, the Congress has failed to learn any lesson from its past follies. It is yet to dawn on its leadership that it was the economic policies it had pursued during the 1991-96 period that led to its abject rejection by the people, a phase from which it is yet to recover. Instead of altering its policies and making them people oriented, what the Congress president Sonia Gandhi indicated at the recent FICCI meeting is unadulterated support to economic policies of the BJP government.

GOVT WILLING TO YIELD TO US

The earlier version of the Vajpayee government saw a significant shift in foreign policy. There was a greater emphasis on improving relations with the United States, or rather a willingness on the part of the Indian government to act as a junior partner of US imperialism. The entire process of Jaswant-Talbott talks were shrouded in secrecy and held in third countries. The coming into place of the new version of the Vajpayee government will see a further boost to this process. Even during the course of the elections, it was evident that the US wanted a return of the Vajpayee government. It could not have found a much better negotiating partner, amenable to pressure and willing to yield.

Coinciding with both these events -- the third ministerial conference of the WTO at Seattle and the commencement of the winter session of parliament -- there will be protests. A week long protest programme is being organised in Seattle with a big demonstration slated for the 30th of November. Both the WFTU and the ICFT have submitted separate memoranda to the WTO, expressing grave concerns. The WFTU has called for ensuring that the international trading system is based on the "principles of equality, sovereignty and non-interference in internal affairs." The statement noted that the basic contradiction in the world capitalist economy is massive overproduction and under-consumption caused by sharp increase in labour productivity, coupled with a decline in the purchasing power of the workers. At home, the moves to privatise the banking and insurance sector are evoking increased resistance. The Committee of Public Sector Trade Unions (CPSTU), comprising the major central trade unions, is spearheading the resistance against the privatisation plans of the central government and has given a call for observance of a national protest day on November 29. On the same day, New Delhi will witness a massive mobilisation of workers and employees before parliament. The committee has also called upon the working class in the country to get prepared for intensifying the struggle with strike actions in the near future.