
| FEATURE Trends of the Last Decade Harkishan Singh Surjeet A S we come to the close of this decade, we have to look back at the events that changed the course of history during the decade. The beginning of the decade saw the disintegration of the Soviet Union and setbacks to socialism in the countries of Eastern Europe. This was to lead to a drastic change in the correlation of class forces internationally and in turn resulting in a bipolar world dominated by USA. As the decade moved ahead, we were witness to US imperialism putting into operation its designs and trying to impose its hegemony the world over with scant regard to international conventions and agencies. This is in direct contrast to the earlier decades which saw big resistance to imperialism represented by the Non-Aligned Movement, Arab League, Organisation of African Unity.The nineties however saw a dramatic change. The movement for a separate homeland for the Palestinians received a jolt. The PLO was forced to come to a settlement, not entirely to its liking, with Israel under US auspices. Movements in other parts of the world were also to suffer a similar fate. The UN was being bulldozed either into submitting to US dictates or was bypassed completely being left with a fait accomplia. The US first forced sanction from the UN for attacks against Iraq, then later on, without sanction, went onto an aggressive action against Yugoslavia. Very recently, it is attempting to interfere in the internal affairs of Russia by its covert support to the Chechnyen separatists. In the case of Cuba it refused to comply with the UN resolution calling for the lifting of the blockade, even though only three member countries which included the US, had voted against this resolution. While the dismantling of the Soviet Union put an end to the Cold War, the US refused to reduce or destroy its weapons of mass destruction. Instead, what we have been witnessing is the increasing sophistication of its weaponry. While it clamoured for the adoption of the CTBT and pressurised various countries, including India, for its ratification, its own Senate rejected the treaty. While the Warsaw Pact was dissolved after the dismantling of the Soviet Union and restoration of capitalism in East European countries, making the NATO conceived as a force to contain communism irrelevant the US is expanding NATO eastwards, with Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic taken into the organisation. Any expectation that the end of the Cold War would usher in an era of peace proved illusory, and we are witnessing a much more aggressive and emboldened US. It is US backing which emboldens Israel to violate the terms of even the unequal peace agreement to deprive the Palestinians of real autonomy and block the formation of an independent Palestinian State. The USA continues with its military maneuvers in West Asia and inhuman sanctions against Iraq. Libya is also subject to sanctions. The brazen and unilateral missile attacks on Sudan and Afghanistan by US imperialism, once again revealed its hegemonistic designs. The recent events confirm that the USA uses all reactionary and terrorist forces to advance its objective. In the Indian subcontinent the US design for destabilization has continued for decades. The Central Asian Republics have now become another strategic area for the USA. The Dayton Accord provided the basis for US intervention in the Balkans. The US is actively working to subvert and suppress progressive and revolutionary forces in Nicaragua, El Salvador and other Latin American countries. President Boris Yeltsin of Russia who had a lot of hope of support and from the US has felt the pinch of the US manoeuvres. Yeltsin's visit to China, and the decision arrived at during the visit that such moves by the US should be unitedly countered must be seen against this background. While Russia declared that it would not yield to any pressure, jointly the two big neighbours emphasised that a unipolar world is not to remain forever and it would not be long before multipolarity emerges. They pledged to cooperate with each other to thwart hegemonic designs. Thus even before the end of this tumultuous decade, there are enough signs of the revival of the anti-imperialist spirit. INDIAN FOREIGN POLICY PERSPECTIVE It is against this developing international situation that the perspective for Indian foreign policy should be seen. The advent of the era of liberalisation, coinciding with the disintegration of the Soviet Union witnessed a pro-West tilt in the contours of Indian foreign policy. This was amply demonstrated in the signing of the agreement for joint exercises between the Indian and US navies, to be expanded to further areas later on -- Joint exercises by the armies and navies of the two countries on land and sea, visit by senior officers, personnel exchange, information exchange and cooperation, all became part of the game. To cap it all was the signing of the Indo-US Military Cooperation Treaty in 1995. A further rightward shift came about with the BJP assuming power at the centre. The BJP was very much in favour of acting as the junior partner of the US in South Asia, dislodging Pakistan. It should be noted, however, that the United States does not intend to discard its long-standing military cooperation with Pakistan, despite growing cooperation with India. The nuclear tests at Pokhran dampened these efforts a bit, with the US imposing sanctions. Instead of confronting the US, the Vajpayee government entered into clandestine negotiations. The Jaswant Singh-Strobe Talbott talks were the consequence, which resulted in a commitment by the Vajpayee government to sign the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty. Though the BJP-led coalition utilised the Kargil conflict to the hilt to reap political dividends during the recently held Lok Sabha elections, it is overlooking the message that this holds for the country. The Pakistani-backed infiltrators had among them many mercenaries who were earlier operating in Afghanistan. It is no secret that the Taliban was a force that was reared in Pakistan and had the direct encouragement of the US. The US armed the Afghan rebels with sophisticated weapons so that it would be able to dislodge the Nazibullah regime and gain strategic advantage in the region. US DESIGNS ON KASHMIR Whatever may be its public pronouncements the US has always wanted Kashmir to be independent of both India and Pakistan. This intent is also spelt out in the Clinton-Nawaz Sharief statement, which was to lead to the withdrawal of the Pakistani intrusion from Kargil. The joint declaration states that Clinton will take "personal interest" in the Kashmir issue. There was not the slightest protest from the Vajpayee administration against this. While the Kargil mountains were vacated, the 2000-odd infiltrators who had been simultaneously sent into the Valley continue to stay put. It has also come to light recently that even before the Lahore declaration was signed between Prime Minister Vajpayee and Nawaz Sharief, Pakistani intruders had reached the Kargil peaks. It hardly needs saying that the change of regime in Pakistan will not see any change in its relations with the US. The US has been very cautious in reacting to the military takeover in Pakistan, and has confined itself to a call for the restoration of democracy at the earliest. FALLING STATUS Whatever be the claims of the BJP-led government, the fact remains that India is losing its status as a leader of the third world. Even in regard to its relations with its neighbours, the situation is far from satisfactory. The improvement made in relations with Bangladesh, Nepal, etc., during the recent period has not been further strengthened, as priorities of late have been set elsewhere. The BJP-led government seems to be oblivious to the fact that the US is seeking cooperation with India only to further its own strategic interests in the area. It tends to forget the role that the US had played in the not too distant past. The path adopted by the Vajpayee government sees no alternative to accepting US suzerainty over the South Asian region in the changed world situation. Important sections of the Indian ruling circles perceive India as becoming a major international power only by becoming a junior partner in the US global strategic plan. This would spell disaster for the country, as it implies abrogation of India's sovereignty, giving in to imperialist exploitation. |
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