If only one takes the trouble to glance through the pages of various economic papers and journals in this month, one would find a spate of budget-related articles, which all have just one single refrain. Controlled by big corporate houses, these papers have consistently been telling the government that it has to curtail its fiscal deficit which is shooting up very fast and going beyond the target fixed in the last budget. Their logic is very simple, even to the extent of being deceptive. What they want to tell the government is: "...As the government has larger deficits, it borrows more, and this leaves less for the private sector to invest". ( Indian Express, February 19.) In fact, money and cheaper money to invest is the sole concern of our corporate barons.

The method they suggest for reducing the fiscal deficit is also deceptively simple: the government must reduce the subsidies that it gives to the various poor and not-so-well-off sections of the people. For example, the same article in the Indian Express screams: "...Sinha's fiscal deficit target will be overshot by a huge margin, with the fertiliser and food subsidies alone expected to overshoot the target by around Rs 7,500 crore." Taking a broad definition of subsidy, it also includes the amounts which the central and state governments spend on making provisions for education, health, drinking water and other "social services" for the masses. The corporate world also wants that the common people must be charged for these services; in fact they are already being charged for many such services in various parts of the country.

There is nothing new in all this. Ever since the new economic policy was initiated in 1991, almost every year we have heard the same refrain. Yashwant Sinha has only been following in the footsteps of his predecessors though, to be fair to him, he has been doing it with much more enthusiasm, as is evident from the taxes, mainly indirect, he has levied in his two budgets -- to the order of Rs 10,000 crore every time.

RICH TO BE SPARED, POOR TO BE ATTACKED

But no pro-liberalisation finance minister has ever bothered to ask whether there are other ways to bring down the deficit without curtailing the subsidies being given to the common masses. Nor are they interested in listening to anything in this regard. For example, according to an estimate, our fiscal deficit by the end of this fiscal year is likely to be around Rs 1,24,000 crore. But if only the government were to take resolute steps to recover the debts the corporate houses owe to the public sector banks (what is called the non-performing assets), along with the interest on these debts, it could get around Rs 55,000 crore, which would liquidate a very substantial part of this deficit. But, for heaven's sake, how could this government take such a step that would harm its blue-eyed boys from the corporate world! Or, for that matter, how can the government tax the income of rural landlords and capitalist farmers who have many representatives among the NDA constituents, no less than in the BJP!

In other words, it is the common people on whose already low living standards the axe has to fall. This is the meaning of the finance minister's repeated warning to the people - Be prepared for harsh measures!

Right now there are indications that,

1) there will be a substantial hike in rail fares and freight charges; 2) prices of LPG cylinders, diesel and kerosene oil are also likely to be hiked; 3) issue prices for the items sold through the public distribution system will be jacked up; no empty threat this, for already in Delhi, the DMS milk price has just been doubled from Rs 7 to 14; 4) some of the services provided by the government will be made more costly; 5) subsidies mainly beneficial to the weaker sections, are also likely to be slashed; and 6) new taxes will be imposed on the people, particularly in the name of the Kargil war which stands as a symbol of the BJP government's ineptitude, could have been avoided if the government had been more vigilant, not bungled, and been able to prevent the infiltration of a large number of extremists, and has cost us more than Rs 10,000 crore. And this list of impending attacks is far from exhaustive.

These hikes, it should be remembered, will come over and above the hikes effected in the last two years since the BJP has been in power. For example, the hefty 40 per cent hike in diesel prices which the BJP government announced just after, and not before the last Lok Sabha polls, and now there is again the threat of it price being hiked.; the same with kerosene. The plea given is the rising crude prices in the international market, but when crude prices had gone down, there was no fall in internal prices or any other kind of worthwhile relief to the people. Only two months ago, LPG prices were raised, in Delhi from Rs 146 to Rs 152 per cylinder, and now there is the threat that consumers will be asked to cough up still more for the same cylinder. There is the promise that ration prices will be raised even though they were increased less than two years ago.

Curtailing subsidies and raising the costs of social services is yet another, indirect way of attacking the livelihood of the poor. For instance, a cut in fertiliser subsidies would raise the cost of agricultural production, which would be passsed on in the form of higher grain prices in the market. Similarly, with higher fees for education, or for that matter in a hospital, or if fees are charged for hitherto free items, it is the poor who feel the brunt, and their real income is reduced to that extent. This is what has been happening ever since the new economic policy was introduced under the Congress regime, and no less in the BJP-led dispensation. And this is the new wisdom which the Bretton-Wood institutions have been foisting on various countries of the world, including India.

In addition to all this one must add the higher prices which unscrupulous traders, manufacturers and hoarders charge with impunity under the BJP patronising regime. Onions had already become a symbol of the BJP regime's callousness on the price front. But giving the bourgeoisie the freedom to loot the people is also very much a part of the World Bank-IMF philosophy. However attractive and seductive the language it is couched in, it only widens the rich-poor gap, as the experience of other countries shows. Indian experience is no different..

UNASHAMED DUPLICITY

It is here that the BJP government's duplicity comes out in full face. When the new economic policy was initiated in July 1991, under the World Bank-IMF tutelage, L K Advani had claimed that it was in fact the BJP's policy which the Congress government had hijacked. But, even while tacitly agreeing to this policy, the BJP as a whole maintained a distance from it and advanced the slogan of Swadeshi. However, as soon as it came to power, it promptly gave up the facade of Swadeshi and promptly embarked on the same path of liberalisation, globalisation and privatisation at full steam. In its first 13-day stint in 1996, it will be recalled, it took steps to benefit the US power multinational, Enron. During the United Front regime, the BJP had joined the CPI(M) and other Left parties' move to oppose the Insurance Regulatory Authority bill and stalled its passage; itself in power, it passed the same anti-national piece of legislation. The similar change in its stand on the Patents Bill marked a landmark in duplicity.

And now, the BJP-led regime has taken up the disinvestment drive with almost passionate zeal, and even created a separate ministry for the purpose -- something neither the Rao government nor the two United Front governments had done. True it is in more dire economic straits than either of the others. To gather resources one way or the other, to please its WB-IMF-WTO masters, (all the same in fact, i.e., imperialism) reduce the fiscal deficit, and facilitate the entry of MNCs into the Indian market, the BJP-led regime is shamelessly hellbent on dismantling the public sector and handing it over to corporate barons, Indian, but mainly foreign, on a platter.

For this same reason the regime is not interested in reviving those industrial units made 'sick' courtesy the private sector; it intends to close down and sell them. For this purpose, the government is contemplating repealing the Sick Industrial Companies Act 1985, hence leaving no possibility for the revival of sick companies. This will jeopardise the employment of some 14 lakh workers and the livelihood of their 75-80 lakh dependents.

It is almost needless to point out the adverse repercussions this will have on our economy. Firstly, it will massacre lakhs of jobs and make the already serious unemployment situation even more alarming. Then, as the question of poverty is directly linked to that of employment, the BJP government's anti-public sector stance will only raise the rate of poverty which, after a period of decline, again began to increase in 1994-95, as a direct consequence of the same policies which this government is pursuing with such vengeance.

The nation's self-reliant development and economic sovereignty is another issue at stake. Who can forget that it was the public sector power industry that brought electricity to lakhs of our villages and contributed to making India self-reliant in food production, ending our dependence on PL-480 and relieving us of imperialist blackmail? Who can forget the notable role played by our public sector fertiliser industry? Who can ignore the role played by our public sector in crucial spheres like steel, coal, oil, drugs and pharmaceuticals, and so on? Can one overlook the role played by public sector banks and other financial institutions in developing our economy? Nobody, except our globalisation-struck wallas whose clamour is that we must end our "isolation," which in effect means our economic independence. Hence their bid to destroy the public sector which has served as a bulwark against our economic enslavement, and provided our people valuable services which the profit-oriented private sector cannot provide.

At the same time, to bale out the developed countries from the recession they are currently in, last year the BJP government put some 340 items in the OGL (open general license) list so as to facilitate their free import, and is now contemplating to take this number to beyond 700. But this will hit Indian industries hard, particularly the small scale and cottage industries. As these industries are labour-intensive and have a high employment generation potential, their demise will further worsen the unemployment situation in the country. Further, these industries also earn a large amount of valuable foreign exchange and their demise therefore will mean a worsening of our trade deficit.

CRUCIAL QUESTION

But the question is: with all these measures will the BJP government be able to retrieve the economy out of the mess in which it has landed? Take the case of the central government's indebtedness which today stands at a whopping 59 per cent of the gross domestic product (GDP), with the interest on internal debt eating up 49 per cent of the government's revenues. Or the case of our trade deficit which has consistently gone up since 1991, despite every attempt to bring it down through export promotion. The sad fact is that even if our exports increase in a particular year, either our imports increase faster or our export earnings decline in dollar terms, or both things happen, pushing the country further into the red. All this has contributed to a burgeoning of our foreign debt which is currently in the vicinity of Rs one lakh crore, notwithstanding the boastings about our "comfortable" forex reserves.

Or take the case of the fiscal deficit in whose name the government is trying to launch attacks on the people's livelihood. One thing has now become clear -- that by the end of March 2000 the fiscal deficit is sure to surpass the 5.5 per cent of GDP target fixed in the 1999-2000 budget. (Estimates vary from Sunil Jain's 5.7 per cent in the Indian Express to Dr Omkar Goswami's 6.9 per cent in The Eeconomic Times.) What has gone wrong and where? Has the government cut its wasteful expenditure? No. Has it widened the tax base by bringing the rural rich and other affluent sections into its ambit? No.

This is apart from the much more solid fact that even though the amounts spent on social sectors and certain types of subsidies cause some rise in the fiscal deficit, this is offset by the fact that such expenditure adds to the people's real income and purchasing power, and thereby supports our industries. A clear example is the fertiliser subsidy which supports our fertiliser industry. The fiscal deficit, caused in this manner, in fact, becomes an economic necessity, particularly in a developing country like India. Therefore to prune social sector expenditures and slash these types of subsidies, in the name of bringing down the fiscal deficit, is tantamount to cutting the very branch on which one is sitting.

We are not joking here at all. The theory and the measures being put forward by globalisation-advocates really amount to pushing the country into this very syndrome. One such, for example, is Shri P Chidambaram, the Harvard-educated finance minister during the United Front regime. In a recent chat on the Indian Express website, Chidambaram suggested a queer remedy for the country's economic ills. Pleading for "big ticket privatisation," he said, advising his successor: "Raise at least Rs 1,00,000 crore in three years and retire an equivalent amount of public debt." In his overzeal, the ex-minister did not pause to ask himself a simple question: If we sell our public sector units today to retire the public debt, what we will do in case fresh debts mount? Nor did his website-surfing audience apparently ask him any such question.

Are any of our pro-privatisation industrialists ready to sell their units to repay the debts they owe to the public sector banks? It is in fact, nothing but the World Bank-IMF brand wisdom that is coming out of the mouths of our Chidambarams and Sinhas!

ANOTHER THREAT

This logic of selling the family silver to repay debts, and the attacks on our self-reliant development, have still another serious implication. If the process goes forward, not only our economic sovereignty, but our independent position in world affairs will be seriously impaired. th Already, there is sitting in New Delhi a government that has proved to be the most openly pro-imperialist, particularly pro-US government since independence. This should not be surprising, however, for the leading party of this government is controlled by the same RSS that had no part in our freedom struggle and therefore cannot be expected to realise the value of independence, for which countless people of our country laid down their precious lives. Right now this government is planning to extend a red carpet welcome to Bill Clinton -- butcher of the Iraqi and Yugoslav people -- and prostrate before him.

Further, the foreign affairs minister of this very government, Jaswant Singh, has earned the dubious distinction of running after Madeline Albright, more so after Strobb Talbott to meet them in third countries and hold parleys with them behind the back of our people. Already there are reports that India under Vajpayee has promised the US to sign the CTBT on the dotted line once an opportune moment comes, i.e., when they find that the people's vigilance has slackened.

However, such changes in our foreign policy cannot but take their toll and compromise our position in the eyes of the world community. This is a serious threat which no patriot can ignore.

THEY CANNOT GO UNCHALLENGED

But Shri Chidambaram is certainly wrong when he tells Shri Yashwant Sinha: "The mood of the people is just right. They will not give any comfort to the opponents of privatisation."

One must ask: just who, in Shri Chidambaram's vocabulary, constitutes 'the people'? Were the electricity workers of UP, who fought the UPSEB's privatisation tooth and nail without raising a single demand about their own wages or bonus, not a part of the people? Do the workers of the Salem steel plant, who are fighting against the sale of their plant, not constitute a part of the people? Do the workers who participated in the Port & Dock Workers' strike, and the strike of government servants in Rajasthan and Jammu & Kasmir, not constitute a part of the people?

In fact, these workers only gave expression to what the real mood of the people is, not what Shri Chidambaram and his ilk think, or would like it to be. The fact is that the people are not going to give any comfort to the votaries of privatisation who are out to jeopardise the country's interests.

The reality is that what took place in UP, or Tamil Nadu, or Kerala, or Rajasthan, or Jammu & Kashmir, was only an indication of what is yet to come. True it will take more time for the people's discontent to get channelised and their resistance to build up into a tornado. True the peasantry and other sections are yet to be mobilised on a big scale. True the communal forces will do everything to divide the people on sectarian lines and break their fighting unity; they are even today hyper-active, posing a serious threat to national unity. But underground the resistance is swelling. If the reports made at the recent all-India convention of the National Platform of Mass Organisations (NPMO) indicated the depth of resentment among various sections of the people, the proposed demonstration before parliament on the coming March 9, and the all-India strike being planned by trade unions some time in May, will be the stern warning to the powers-that-be that their misdeeds cannot go unchallenged.

The coming days are crucial. The communal forces will try their damndest to divide the people and push them into fratricidal conflicts. On the other hand, even if the BJP's allies have a difference of opinion with the big brother on issues like secularism and federalism, they are also in favour of pushing ahead the same policies of globalisation and liberalisation. Even the experience of East and South East Asian countries has not been able to open their eyes and make them realise the pitfalls that are inherent in the World Bank-IMF brand policies.

The struggle looming ahead is not going to be an easy one. There is also the danger that if the people's ever growing discontent is not harnessed for democratic struggles, it will only run into disruptive and destructive channels. Nor can the country, in that case, be saved from the imperialist powers who are trying to draw India into their sphere of influence and tighten their stranglehold on our economy, foreign and defence policies, and other spheres, including our culture. Naturally, the Left and democratic parties, mass organisations, individuals and even non-political organisations will have to take the initiative and rouse the widest possible sections of the people for defending their living standards and the country's future. The task brooks not a moment of delay.