
| INTERNATIONAL
The longest U.S. economic expansion
By Wadi'h Halabi The monopoly media has been celebrating the longest expansion in U.S. history - eight years, 10 months. If unemployment was the criterion, the expansion would be at least 18 months shorter. The government estimates 9.6 million people are unemployed or want work; 55 million U.S. residents are so poor and housing costs so high that mass homelessness and chronic hunger rose during the expansion. Two million are in prison, 44 million lack health insurance. If this is "as good as it gets," that tells us about capitalism today. Still, compared to other capitalist countries, the U.S. appears as a botanical garden in a world of instability and wars. By one count, of the eight worst economic crises since the 1930s, seven have occurred since 1990 - all in other countries. Why has the U.S. economy been relatively stable? The first thing to keep in mind is that the world economy is not entirely capitalist. States created by socialist revolutions, including China, Vietnam and Cuba, account today for more than 10 percent of world production. The economies of these states are not cyclical, because planning predominates, even after capitalist inroads. Compare U.S. cycles with the decades in the Soviet Union (before restoration) or China,
without a boom-bust cycle. 1990-91 and 1997 marked global turns for the worse in
capitalist overproduction. China's purchases can act like powerful "anti-clotting agents" that help keep the capitalist system from congealing in crisis. In 1993, the chief international economist for a Wall Street bank even admitted that without China's purchases, "there would be world chaos." But back to the U.S. stability. Explanations for this stability include regulation of
interest rates by the Federal Reserve; government expenditures ("Keynesian
mechanisms"); advances in technology; and bank-deposit insurance. All imply that capitalism has learned to regulate if not overcome its cycles. A simple test of the validity of these explanations is to ask, Why don't other capitalist countries use these measures to avoid the problems they are facing? Most have tried. The Japanese economy has been stagnant or in recession for a decade. In efforts to revive it, the Japanese government has been making capital available at no interest. It has spent hundreds of billions of dollars on stimulative packages. The economy remains in recession. Now the Japanese government is neck-deep in debt and Moody's just placed it on credit
watch. In addition, unequal exchange - whereby U.S. monopolies sell their commodities above
value while buying from weaker parties below value - almost invisibly draws tens of
billions to Wall Street. Speculation, currency manipulation and other Wall Street
maneuvers draw billions more. Headlines blare that the current "boom" is taking place in peacetime, unlike previous long expansions. But U.S. imperialism has been the main force in two major (and by no means concluded) wars, in the Gulf and the Balkans, and countless less-publicized conflicts in Latin America, Africa and Asia. The Pentagon budget is at wartime levels. All that capital flowing into the U.S. is trying to escape wars, instability and losses abroad. In the three months after the U.S. started bombing Yugoslavia last March, capital flooded into the U.S. at a $1.1 trillion annual rate. Wall Street is using its position of economic and military dominance, and the improvements in communications and transport, to push off capitalism's toxins - starting with unemployment - onto weaker countries, while looting them, cheapening their labor and destroying or idling their production facilities. In a sense, the "Great American Depression" has been pushed off onto Africa, onto Iraq and Yugoslavia, onto the Ukraine and Romania, i.e. the states that have fallen to counter-revolution since 1989. Of course, "prosperity" from looting and destruction cannot go on indefinitely. And world capitalism's unfolding crisis of overproduction is bound to affect the states created by socialist revolutions - currently China, Vietnam, Laos, Northern Korea and Cuba. Workers in the U.S. - who have not fared well in this expansion - have no interest in a
temporary "stability" gained at the cost of destruction, cheapened labor and
looting abroad. |
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